NEM's Wave 2 Cycle Low At 39.84 On 10-4-06
Reliable lead indicator NEM's very flat action the past week or so is due to the fact that it probably hit a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, so, this is probably NEM's Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) beginning relatively flat, as cycles almost always do. If NEM puts in a lower cycle low than 39.84 it should only be modestly below 39.84 due to the proximity to the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline.
NEM's flat action has flattened out HUI/XAU, since NEM is the second highest weighted component of HUI (GFI is first I think), and, the last I checked, was the most heavily weighted component of the XAU by far. HUI/XAU will probably fall substantially the next week or two, with the XAU hitting 100-110. The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The XAU filled it's downside gap from last Thursday at 122.06 yesterday, but, NEM didn't fill it's downside gap from last Thursday at 40.83, it's cycle low was 40.96 yesterday. There's a good chance that NEM will fill that gap today or tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU yesterday, which explains today's strength so far. The past sixteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.25% versus the XAU.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
NEM's flat action has flattened out HUI/XAU, since NEM is the second highest weighted component of HUI (GFI is first I think), and, the last I checked, was the most heavily weighted component of the XAU by far. HUI/XAU will probably fall substantially the next week or two, with the XAU hitting 100-110. The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
The XAU filled it's downside gap from last Thursday at 122.06 yesterday, but, NEM didn't fill it's downside gap from last Thursday at 40.83, it's cycle low was 40.96 yesterday. There's a good chance that NEM will fill that gap today or tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU yesterday, which explains today's strength so far. The past sixteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.25% versus the XAU.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:02 AM
