The XAU Filled It's Downside Gap From Last Thursday At 122.06
The XAU filled it's downside gap from last Thursday at 122.06 today, but, NEM didn't fill it's downside gap from last Thursday at 40.83, it's cycle low was 40.96
today. There's a good chance that NEM will fill that gap early tomorrow, because NEM closed at 41.09 today.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU today. The past sixteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.25% versus the XAU.
Since NEM probably bottomed on Wednesday 10-4 at 39.84 (at it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline), whereas HUI/XAU still have a substantial decline ahead of them in order to approach (Wave A)/reach (Wave C) their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, the NEM Lead Indicator will tend to be much more positive now than before NEM bottomed. This means that today's NEM Lead Indicator (at a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU) isn't as bullish as it seems, because, cycles being the primary market timing consideration, the fact that Wave A of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 probably hasn't bottomed (target 100-110 for the XAU), means that the NEM Lead Indicator is probably misleading, if you interpret it as if NEM still had a ways to fall, but it's probably bottomed or nearly so.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%. The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4).
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
today. There's a good chance that NEM will fill that gap early tomorrow, because NEM closed at 41.09 today.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU today. The past sixteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -16.25% versus the XAU.
Since NEM probably bottomed on Wednesday 10-4 at 39.84 (at it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline), whereas HUI/XAU still have a substantial decline ahead of them in order to approach (Wave A)/reach (Wave C) their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, the NEM Lead Indicator will tend to be much more positive now than before NEM bottomed. This means that today's NEM Lead Indicator (at a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XAU) isn't as bullish as it seems, because, cycles being the primary market timing consideration, the fact that Wave A of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 probably hasn't bottomed (target 100-110 for the XAU), means that the NEM Lead Indicator is probably misleading, if you interpret it as if NEM still had a ways to fall, but it's probably bottomed or nearly so.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 30-35 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 25-30%. The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM has been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (may have ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4).
Reliable lead indicator NEM made a new Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave C down/another brutal decline began on Thursday 9-28 for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:28 PM
