HUI Downtrend Since 11-7-07's Likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market Cycle High
HUI has a downtrend since 11-7-07's likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 463.06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI is probably in a short term Wave C of the Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07. The XAU's chart is also ugly, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.86% versus the XAU today/on 12-7, +0.21% on 12-6, and -0.58% on 12-5. I'll be looking to short GDX or GLD on Monday.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.33% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-7 and was a bearish -0.74% versus SPX on 12-6. The SPX picture is the same as discussed yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/spx-s-p-500-and-wmt-short-term-wave-3.html.
I'll be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500) short on Monday via the Ultra Short ETF SDS.
SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend Wave B monthly or maybe minor intermediate term upcycle in late November, creating a bullish breakaway gap at 11-28's open at 1428.23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The countertrend Wave B monthly or minor intermediate term upcycle should bottom below 10-11-07's likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.86% versus the XAU today/on 12-7, +0.21% on 12-6, and -0.58% on 12-5. I'll be looking to short GDX or GLD on Monday.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.33% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-7 and was a bearish -0.74% versus SPX on 12-6. The SPX picture is the same as discussed yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/spx-s-p-500-and-wmt-short-term-wave-3.html.
I'll be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500) short on Monday via the Ultra Short ETF SDS.
SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend Wave B monthly or maybe minor intermediate term upcycle in late November, creating a bullish breakaway gap at 11-28's open at 1428.23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The countertrend Wave B monthly or minor intermediate term upcycle should bottom below 10-11-07's likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:17 PM
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