SPX (S & P 500) And WMT Short Term Wave 3 Appears To Be Peaking
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and WMT's short term Wave 3 upcycle appears to be peaking (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt). In today's first post I said that Wave 1 of SPX's short term Wave 3 was peaking, and, it might just be Wave 1 of Wave 3, but, since it's a likely countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle for SPX (likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07) and since reliable lead indicator WMT looks like it's about to experience a sharp decline/short term Wave 4 downcycle, then SPX's entire short term Wave 3 might be peaking now. Tomorrow's monthly Employment Report might move the market substantially.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus SPX today/on 12-6 and the NEM Lead Indicator was +0.21% versus the XAU today/on 12-6.
I'll be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500) short tomorrow via the Ultra Short ETF SDS. As far as HUI/XAU are concerned the chart is ugly to say the least, and, I'll short it (short GDX or GLD) if I do anything, but, I'm in cash right now.
SPX (S & P 500) probably entered a countertrend Wave B monthly or maybe minor intermediate term upcycle in late November, creating a bullish breakaway gap at 11-28's open at 1428.23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The countertrend Wave B monthly or minor intermediate term upcycle should bottom below 10-11-07's likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
My strategy is to trade the SPX Ultra ETFs SSO/SDS the next few weeks based upon SPX's Elliott Wave count.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus SPX today/on 12-6 and the NEM Lead Indicator was +0.21% versus the XAU today/on 12-6.
I'll be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500) short tomorrow via the Ultra Short ETF SDS. As far as HUI/XAU are concerned the chart is ugly to say the least, and, I'll short it (short GDX or GLD) if I do anything, but, I'm in cash right now.
SPX (S & P 500) probably entered a countertrend Wave B monthly or maybe minor intermediate term upcycle in late November, creating a bullish breakaway gap at 11-28's open at 1428.23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The countertrend Wave B monthly or minor intermediate term upcycle should bottom below 10-11-07's likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
My strategy is to trade the SPX Ultra ETFs SSO/SDS the next few weeks based upon SPX's Elliott Wave count.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
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