Quick Update - SPX (S & P 500), HUI, XAU
Concerning SPX (S & P 500), it's in, until proven otherwise (today didn't change anything), the final Wave C of Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle since putting in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07 (cycle began in October 2002), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looks like SPX might have a bit more downside.
HUI/XAU are four calendar sessions into a countertrend short term Wave B upcycle. They put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
An addition to the discussion of cycle buy/sell signals in the previous post (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/11/happy-thanksgiving-and-spx-s-p-500-hui.html) is that, once a buy or sell signal occurs, wait for a countertrend downcycle (usually a short term 2-4 day Wave 2) or Wave B upcycle (typically a week or two) to occur before looking to enter a long or short position.
Right now it looks like it'll be at least a few more sessions before I look to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX, which closely tracks HUI. Looking at HUI's 5 day intraday chart, HUI appears to have completed a 3 day Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Ehui, which is probably Wave 1 of the countertrend short term Wave B upcycle. The NEM Lead indicator was a very bearish -1.05% versus the XAU today/11-23.
Gold might have put in a very bearish double top with the 1980 Secular Bull Market cycle high, I still need to check the numbers, so, keep in mind that even I may be too optimistic about HUI/XAU/gold, partly because of the potential very long term bearish gold double top, but, more so for the mortgage/credit bust/debacle that continues to unfold. GM might be forced into bankruptcy I think I heard and many others obviously. The surprise might be to the downside of 220ish for HUI (see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), 95ish for the XAU, and, 500ish for gold. Welcome to DEFLATION. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU are four calendar sessions into a countertrend short term Wave B upcycle. They put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
An addition to the discussion of cycle buy/sell signals in the previous post (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/11/happy-thanksgiving-and-spx-s-p-500-hui.html) is that, once a buy or sell signal occurs, wait for a countertrend downcycle (usually a short term 2-4 day Wave 2) or Wave B upcycle (typically a week or two) to occur before looking to enter a long or short position.
Right now it looks like it'll be at least a few more sessions before I look to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX, which closely tracks HUI. Looking at HUI's 5 day intraday chart, HUI appears to have completed a 3 day Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Ehui, which is probably Wave 1 of the countertrend short term Wave B upcycle. The NEM Lead indicator was a very bearish -1.05% versus the XAU today/11-23.
Gold might have put in a very bearish double top with the 1980 Secular Bull Market cycle high, I still need to check the numbers, so, keep in mind that even I may be too optimistic about HUI/XAU/gold, partly because of the potential very long term bearish gold double top, but, more so for the mortgage/credit bust/debacle that continues to unfold. GM might be forced into bankruptcy I think I heard and many others obviously. The surprise might be to the downside of 220ish for HUI (see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), 95ish for the XAU, and, 500ish for gold. Welcome to DEFLATION. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:33 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home