HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market Since Late 2000 Is Peaking In Dramatic Rollover Mode
HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The anemic (under water until Wave 5) long term upcycle from June 2006 to now is a likely rollover major upcycle.
Here's the Elliott Wave count for this rollover major upcycle since the cycle low at 270.54 in June 2006, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The Wave 1 cycle high was at 369.38 in September 2006. The Wave 2 cycle low was at 274.72 in October 2006. The Wave 3 cycle high was at 372.20 in July 2007. The Wave 4 cycle low was at 284.85 on 8-16-07. The Wave 5 upcycle of this rollover major upcycle since the cycle low at 270.54 in June 2006 is peaking now (Wave 5 of Wave 5), which means that HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71.
Note how incredibly anemic this major upcycle since mid June 2006 has been, with all of the upside versus the 5-11-06's cycle highs occurring in October/November 2007. It's clearly not healthy/normal bull market behavior, and, clearly jives with the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Also, the huge spike move since 8-16-07 jives completely with the typical huge/final Bull Market Wave 5 spike move.
The trading of the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders jives completely with the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario, and, one has to be very impressed with their very high level of conviction in the most recent 5 day period's (ending 10-30-07) data, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
Amazingly, despite gold's significant strength recently, they not only didn't cover but, continued to go massively short, adding 27,027 short gold futures and options contracts, while also trading aggressively long, adding 15,462 long gold futures and options contracts. These guys are unbelievable. This data obviously strongly supports the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is extremely bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short in the five day period ending 10-30-07, but, also traded aggressively long, correctly anticipating the recent strength, and, have gone massively short the past eight weeks, adding 27,027 short gold futures and options contracts last week (covered 5567 two weeks ago, added 19,360 three weeks ago, added 16,788 four weeks ago, added 1751 five weeks ago, added 27,946 six weeks ago, added over 17,000 seven weeks ago, and, added a massive 53,207 eight weeks ago), while adding 15,462 (added 9632 two weeks ago, added 5075 three weeks ago, liquidated 192 four weeks ago, liquidated 5492 five weeks ago, liquidated 2977 six weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts last week.
The extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator (= an extremely bearish -11.20% versus the XAU the past 47 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) also jives with the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario:
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.58% versus the XAU today/on 11-2, +1.04% on 11-1,+5.51% on 10-31, -0.01% on 10-30, -1.46% on 10-29, +0.09% on 10-26, -0.72% on 10-25, +0.32% on 10-24, -1.33% on 10-23, +0.91% on 10-22 (yes, same as Friday), +0.91% on 10-19, -0.88% on 10-18, -2.00% on 10-17, +1.11% on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -11.20% versus the XAU the past 47 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Also, basic technical analysis strongly supports the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's primary trendline is at 210-230 now and the XAU's is at 90-95, so, they have about 50% to fall or nearly so in the next year or so. The laws of Physics haven't been repealed, ignore the clueless delusional ignorant irresponsible misguided gold nitwits.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Here's the Elliott Wave count for this rollover major upcycle since the cycle low at 270.54 in June 2006, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The Wave 1 cycle high was at 369.38 in September 2006. The Wave 2 cycle low was at 274.72 in October 2006. The Wave 3 cycle high was at 372.20 in July 2007. The Wave 4 cycle low was at 284.85 on 8-16-07. The Wave 5 upcycle of this rollover major upcycle since the cycle low at 270.54 in June 2006 is peaking now (Wave 5 of Wave 5), which means that HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71.
Note how incredibly anemic this major upcycle since mid June 2006 has been, with all of the upside versus the 5-11-06's cycle highs occurring in October/November 2007. It's clearly not healthy/normal bull market behavior, and, clearly jives with the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Also, the huge spike move since 8-16-07 jives completely with the typical huge/final Bull Market Wave 5 spike move.
The trading of the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders jives completely with the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario, and, one has to be very impressed with their very high level of conviction in the most recent 5 day period's (ending 10-30-07) data, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
Amazingly, despite gold's significant strength recently, they not only didn't cover but, continued to go massively short, adding 27,027 short gold futures and options contracts, while also trading aggressively long, adding 15,462 long gold futures and options contracts. These guys are unbelievable. This data obviously strongly supports the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is extremely bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short in the five day period ending 10-30-07, but, also traded aggressively long, correctly anticipating the recent strength, and, have gone massively short the past eight weeks, adding 27,027 short gold futures and options contracts last week (covered 5567 two weeks ago, added 19,360 three weeks ago, added 16,788 four weeks ago, added 1751 five weeks ago, added 27,946 six weeks ago, added over 17,000 seven weeks ago, and, added a massive 53,207 eight weeks ago), while adding 15,462 (added 9632 two weeks ago, added 5075 three weeks ago, liquidated 192 four weeks ago, liquidated 5492 five weeks ago, liquidated 2977 six weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts last week.
The extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator (= an extremely bearish -11.20% versus the XAU the past 47 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) also jives with the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario:
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.58% versus the XAU today/on 11-2, +1.04% on 11-1,+5.51% on 10-31, -0.01% on 10-30, -1.46% on 10-29, +0.09% on 10-26, -0.72% on 10-25, +0.32% on 10-24, -1.33% on 10-23, +0.91% on 10-22 (yes, same as Friday), +0.91% on 10-19, -0.88% on 10-18, -2.00% on 10-17, +1.11% on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -11.20% versus the XAU the past 47 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Also, basic technical analysis strongly supports the HUI/XAU Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode scenario, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's primary trendline is at 210-230 now and the XAU's is at 90-95, so, they have about 50% to fall or nearly so in the next year or so. The laws of Physics haven't been repealed, ignore the clueless delusional ignorant irresponsible misguided gold nitwits.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
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