Waitin On The Fed And NEM Is Going Bananas On A Good Earnings Report
The Fed will probably cut the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point/0.25%, see http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/fed_interest_rates.html. I might not do a post market close update today, or, if I do it might be tonight.
Reliable HUI/XAU lead indicator NEM is going bananas on a good earnings report, up as much as +9%ish at one point so far today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
But, given how well NEM is doing HUI has been very subdued so far, up only +2.50%ish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Since NEM has been up as much as +9%ish the fact that HUI couldn't easily take out Monday's cycle high at 430.79 (and is up only a small fraction of what NEM is) is a major negative, though HUI just did slightly exceed 430.79.
It also might mean that HUI will have a big spike move in the next day or two (typically would happen, but, probably not in this case), but, that seems doubtful, unless the Fed cuts by a half point/0.50%, which is doubtful. I think this is just a very brief huge NEM earnings spike move that will quickly correct, and, will probably turn out to be a negative, with NEM adding to the downside in HUI/XAU the next few sessions.
I'm looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, which has filled yesterday's upside gap at 49.84, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Without NEM's huge spike move today no way would GDX have had a shot at filling 49.84.
The precious metals sector is about to get crushed, and, has probably entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, which really began on May 11, 2006, since all the +8-10%ish HUI/XAU upside has come this month/October 2007 as a result of the massive liquidity injection by the Fed due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Big picture however the housing crash/huge bust and a looming stock market multi year Bear Market (probably began on 10-11-07 at 1576.09 for SPX (S & P 500)) will be very deflationary, which is a major negative for gold.
I got on a non Yahoo low traffic message board to give a Trade the Cycles assessment of a recently red hot stock that's probably recently entered a 3-6 month major intermediate term downcycle. The bulls there vehemently attacked me, called me a short (stock's under 5, couldn't short it), a basher (really they bashed me and tried to interfere with my right to free speech), and a spammer (I have no newsletter, but, I like to create some links and get a little more exposure, but, this was a low traffic non Yahoo message board. Spam is technically bulk electronic e mail anyway).
They also tried to discredit my work and Elliott Wave, despite the fact that this stock clearly followed Elliott Wave patterns as most do, and, I outlined them. These people are about to get and have started to get crushed, but, they ironically were biting the hand that fed them. Wouldn't they want to know if the stock was likely to experience a major correction?
I got banned within 1 day of signing up, because I was seen as disruptive, and called a few people names, after they of course first falsely accused me of being a spammer, short seller, a basher, etc.
I've seen this before where a bunch of dingbats tried to censor honest objective market timing/technical analysis on a message board. It might amount to attempted illegal stock price manipulation, and, is anti American attempted censorship.
The gold sector is littered with goofy cockroach gold writers who're nearly always bullish. There are some very odd and slimey ducks in the gold sector.
One good thing about the devastation that's going to soon hit the gold sector is that a lot of puny evil empires will get crushed, and, they already did take a major beating from May 2006 to September 2007. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable HUI/XAU lead indicator NEM is going bananas on a good earnings report, up as much as +9%ish at one point so far today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
But, given how well NEM is doing HUI has been very subdued so far, up only +2.50%ish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Since NEM has been up as much as +9%ish the fact that HUI couldn't easily take out Monday's cycle high at 430.79 (and is up only a small fraction of what NEM is) is a major negative, though HUI just did slightly exceed 430.79.
It also might mean that HUI will have a big spike move in the next day or two (typically would happen, but, probably not in this case), but, that seems doubtful, unless the Fed cuts by a half point/0.50%, which is doubtful. I think this is just a very brief huge NEM earnings spike move that will quickly correct, and, will probably turn out to be a negative, with NEM adding to the downside in HUI/XAU the next few sessions.
I'm looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, which has filled yesterday's upside gap at 49.84, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Without NEM's huge spike move today no way would GDX have had a shot at filling 49.84.
The precious metals sector is about to get crushed, and, has probably entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, which really began on May 11, 2006, since all the +8-10%ish HUI/XAU upside has come this month/October 2007 as a result of the massive liquidity injection by the Fed due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Big picture however the housing crash/huge bust and a looming stock market multi year Bear Market (probably began on 10-11-07 at 1576.09 for SPX (S & P 500)) will be very deflationary, which is a major negative for gold.
I got on a non Yahoo low traffic message board to give a Trade the Cycles assessment of a recently red hot stock that's probably recently entered a 3-6 month major intermediate term downcycle. The bulls there vehemently attacked me, called me a short (stock's under 5, couldn't short it), a basher (really they bashed me and tried to interfere with my right to free speech), and a spammer (I have no newsletter, but, I like to create some links and get a little more exposure, but, this was a low traffic non Yahoo message board. Spam is technically bulk electronic e mail anyway).
They also tried to discredit my work and Elliott Wave, despite the fact that this stock clearly followed Elliott Wave patterns as most do, and, I outlined them. These people are about to get and have started to get crushed, but, they ironically were biting the hand that fed them. Wouldn't they want to know if the stock was likely to experience a major correction?
I got banned within 1 day of signing up, because I was seen as disruptive, and called a few people names, after they of course first falsely accused me of being a spammer, short seller, a basher, etc.
I've seen this before where a bunch of dingbats tried to censor honest objective market timing/technical analysis on a message board. It might amount to attempted illegal stock price manipulation, and, is anti American attempted censorship.
The gold sector is littered with goofy cockroach gold writers who're nearly always bullish. There are some very odd and slimey ducks in the gold sector.
One good thing about the devastation that's going to soon hit the gold sector is that a lot of puny evil empires will get crushed, and, they already did take a major beating from May 2006 to September 2007. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:47 AM
2 Comments:
Wow good all around day for gold and the HUI. The sharp drops at the open and after the fed announcement were classic bull market pullbacks, violent and quick. Have you looked at the E wave count for gold in othere currencies? The dollar is getting crushed so this should be pulling your long term targets for the HUI and gold up. The NEM indicator needs some work days with company specific announcements should be entered as a 0 weather the news is good or bad. Or maybe recalibrated to 0 1 hour after the news is out.
J
By
Anonymous, at 1:28 PM
Hi J,
I think the major liquidity/weak USD HUI/XAU/gold spike move since 8-16-07 soon ends, and, will end badly for those that wait for the decline to begin in earnest.
HUI might end up bottoming at 230 or 240, or, it could be 210-220, what's the use in guessing?
Many gold/silver stocks are in a Cyclical Bull Market, as reliable lead indicator NEM probably is now. NEM hit a major 5% follow through buy signal.
An HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is far from a death knell for all gold/silver stocks, but, one has to be even more careful than usual, because, the downcycles will tend to be frquent and/or vicious. Good luck!
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:46 PM
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