SPX (S & P 500) & RUT (Russell 2000) Are Doing An Elliott Wave 12345 Up Down Up down Up Upcycle Since Early Yesterday
SPX (S & P 500) and RUT (Russell 2000) are doing/trying to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle since early yesterday, that's probably the start of a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle for SPX, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. They "need" to complete Wave 5 early tomorrow. If they don't that will be a bearish sign obviously.
Since Thursday 10-11-07's likely very important Cyclical Bull Market (and minor intermediate term since 8-16-07) cycle high for SPX (S & P 500) (and HUI), SPX has done a short term Wave A downcycle (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern), that probably bottomed yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
When SPX (S & P 500), HUI, RUT do/complete a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle for few days/weeks I'm probably going to aggressively (large positions) short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (tracks HUI), and short the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) via the Ultra Short ETF TWM.
See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/s-p-500-spx-short-term-wave-downcycle.html if you haven't been reading this Blog or want to refer to the previous analysis/info. Today's WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus SPX (S & P 500).
HUI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), XAU, and reliable lead indicator NEM appear to have completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle since early Monday, which might be the entire HUI/XAU short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, since putting in likely Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) and minor intermediate term (began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 10-11-07 for HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) and on 10-15-07 for the XAU.
The bearish NEM Lead Indicator the past 3 days at
-0.72% versus the XAU on 10-25, +0.32% on 10-24, and -1.33% on 10-23 suggests that HUI/XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) might have peaked early today/10-25-07. If so HUI/XAU should do a significant Wave A type decline tomorrow and the NEM Lead Indicator should be bearish when the subsequent countertrend Wave B type rebound occurs. I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX if the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle appears to have peaked.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.72% versus the XAU today/on 10-25, +0.32% on 10-24, -1.33% on 10-23, +0.91% on 10-22 (yes, same as Friday), +0.91% on 10-19, -0.88% on 10-18, -2.00% on 10-17, +1.11% on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -16.95% versus the XAU the past 41 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is extremely bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short in the five day period ending 10-16-07, adding a large 19,360 short gold futures and options contracts (added 16,788 two weeks ago, added 1751 three weeks ago, added 27,946 four weeks ago, added over 17,000 five weeks ago, and, added a massive 53,207 six weeks ago), while adding 5075 (liquidated 192 two weeks ago, liquidated 5492 three weeks ago, liquidated 2977 four weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts, correctly anticipating the recent strength.
A brief rockets summary (none are recommendations, just timing examples/info):
Because a major market downcycle has begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Some new rockets I'm watching are TMY (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/transmeridian-exploration-inc-tmy.html), Titanium Metals Corp (TIE, strong insider buying), VLNC (strong insider buying), PKTR (insider buying), Linux Gold LNXGF (new Cyclical Bull Market).
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) needs to do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week before I look to trade it long. I'm excited about trading this one. I probably will trade this one once it does a monthly downcycle.
Lincoln Gold, LGCP.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lgcp) looks good once it does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week.
I'm "imminently" looking to/might buy VG (Vonage) for a short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 2 week trade (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Since Thursday 10-11-07's likely very important Cyclical Bull Market (and minor intermediate term since 8-16-07) cycle high for SPX (S & P 500) (and HUI), SPX has done a short term Wave A downcycle (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern), that probably bottomed yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
When SPX (S & P 500), HUI, RUT do/complete a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle for few days/weeks I'm probably going to aggressively (large positions) short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (tracks HUI), and short the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) via the Ultra Short ETF TWM.
See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/s-p-500-spx-short-term-wave-downcycle.html if you haven't been reading this Blog or want to refer to the previous analysis/info. Today's WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus SPX (S & P 500).
HUI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), XAU, and reliable lead indicator NEM appear to have completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle since early Monday, which might be the entire HUI/XAU short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, since putting in likely Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) and minor intermediate term (began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 10-11-07 for HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) and on 10-15-07 for the XAU.
The bearish NEM Lead Indicator the past 3 days at
-0.72% versus the XAU on 10-25, +0.32% on 10-24, and -1.33% on 10-23 suggests that HUI/XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) might have peaked early today/10-25-07. If so HUI/XAU should do a significant Wave A type decline tomorrow and the NEM Lead Indicator should be bearish when the subsequent countertrend Wave B type rebound occurs. I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX if the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle appears to have peaked.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.72% versus the XAU today/on 10-25, +0.32% on 10-24, -1.33% on 10-23, +0.91% on 10-22 (yes, same as Friday), +0.91% on 10-19, -0.88% on 10-18, -2.00% on 10-17, +1.11% on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -16.95% versus the XAU the past 41 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is extremely bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short in the five day period ending 10-16-07, adding a large 19,360 short gold futures and options contracts (added 16,788 two weeks ago, added 1751 three weeks ago, added 27,946 four weeks ago, added over 17,000 five weeks ago, and, added a massive 53,207 six weeks ago), while adding 5075 (liquidated 192 two weeks ago, liquidated 5492 three weeks ago, liquidated 2977 four weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts, correctly anticipating the recent strength.
A brief rockets summary (none are recommendations, just timing examples/info):
Because a major market downcycle has begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Some new rockets I'm watching are TMY (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/transmeridian-exploration-inc-tmy.html), Titanium Metals Corp (TIE, strong insider buying), VLNC (strong insider buying), PKTR (insider buying), Linux Gold LNXGF (new Cyclical Bull Market).
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) needs to do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week before I look to trade it long. I'm excited about trading this one. I probably will trade this one once it does a monthly downcycle.
Lincoln Gold, LGCP.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lgcp) looks good once it does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week.
I'm "imminently" looking to/might buy VG (Vonage) for a short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 2 week trade (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:44 PM
4 Comments:
GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, tracks the Amex Gold Miners Index. The index symbol is GDM. It does not track the HUI. The HUI is the AMEX Gold Bugs Index. GDM is much broader with 35 companies in the index versus only 15 companies in HUI. Also, the HUI is a Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. GDM contains the top market cap gold companies that both do and do not hedge their gold production.
By
Anonymous, at 6:01 PM
Hi,
Look at the Yahoo compare chart one, GDX Versus HUI 5 Day Chart, and one can see that GDX and HUI track very closely. GDX and GDM may track even more closely, but, for practical purposes, GDX tracks HUI very closely. Good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:35 PM
I think that the 420 cycle high gets taken out today. Gold it at 775 after touching 779. Unless gold gets killed in New York the HUI should have a nice day. If countrywide puts out a really bad number that will increase the croud calling for a .50 cut from the fed. Already sentiment is split 86 to 14 between the .25 and 50 based on the futures. If the market goes down the tubes today the HUI might not hold its open.
J
By
Anonymous, at 4:26 AM
The HUI cycle high on 10-11-07, that's a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, was at 423.16. Reliable lead indicator NEM spiked to 47.75 just after the open, then quickly plunged more than a point, and, is probably going to try to fill today's downside gap from the open at 46.17. This short term upcycle since early Monday is probably a countertrend Wave B upcycle. Good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 6:50 AM
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