I'm Looking To Short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Or GLD (Gold ETF)
Today confirmed the bearish case for HUI/XAU/gold, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, because, since last Thursday's late -4.90% HUI mini crash, HUI had done an up down up down pattern prior to today, and, today HUI failed to put in the usual higher third/final Wave 5 cycle high, and instead trended down, and, has trended down since last Thursday 10-11-07's cycle high at 423.16, which is a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle since late 2000, and, is a likely minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 8-16-07.
HUI/XAU put in bearish double top cycle highs yesterday with last Thursday's cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, which is probably the Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs.
For all practical purposes HUI's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market ended on 5-11-06 at 401.69 (XAU at 171.71). HUI/XAU/gold have only risen about 5% from 5-11-06 to the recent cycle highs. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking (HUI probably did on 10-11-07, XAU yesterday I think) in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
Once a sell signal occurs it's time to exit. The 5% major sell signal, see annotated charts 15 and 18 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, that occurred in May 2006, correctly indicated that it was time to turn bearish on HUI/XAU.
Late last Thursday 10-11-07 HUI did a vicious -4.90% Wave A down type move to 402.42, and, in the next day or two HUI should complete a Wave C type move and bottom well below the Wave A cycle low (at 402.42) at roughly 395ish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The very bullish NEM Lead Indicator today, at +1.11% versus the XAU today/10-16, kept me from holding a short position overnight. I'll be looking to go short GDX (Gold Miners ETF, tracks HUI) or GLD (Gold ETF) early tomorrow. If HUI plunges and I miss a sharp decline, I can look to short GLD (Gold ETF), since gold is lagging HUI as it tends to do.
Most of the gold writers are bullish and many are giddy like school kids. They tend to be a very clueless and sorry bunch when it comes to market timing, which is obviously a difficult subject. The money market whipped HUI/XAU/gold since 5-11-06 and many gold writers are giddy. HUI/XAU are about 50% (that's right) above (meaning that they need to fall about 50% to reach their primary uptrend lines) their primary Secular Bull Market uptrend lines in effect since late 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. 90%+ of the gold writers are very hazardous to your wealth.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.11% versus the XAU today/on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -14.16% versus the XAU the past 34 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a large 16,788 short gold futures and options contracts (added 1751 two weeks ago, 27,946 three weeks ago, over 17,000 four weeks ago, and, a massive 53,207 five weeks ago), while liquidating 192 (5492 the prior week, 2977 three weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts.
Last Thursday's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high is potentially a very important one, it might be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle that began in October 2002.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength was rollover action, which was the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What was going on in the market was very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The point of sell signals is much more to indicate that risk has increased dramatically than it is to be a psychic nailing every cycle high. Double and even triple tops are fairly common, as is rollover action with modestly, and, much less frequently (especially for major 5% sell signals), sometimes substantially higher cycle highs occurring. SPX's (S & P 500) 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, indicated that July's cycle high at 1555.90 was a likely/potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, and, more importantly, that trading SPX long was risky, because, a very important cycle trendline had broken down.
A brief rockets summary (none are recommendations, just timing examples/info):
Because a major market downcycle may have begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Lincoln Gold, LGCP.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lgcp) looks good once it does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week.
I'm "imminently" (might Wednesday) looking to buy VG (Vonage) and ONT for short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 3 day trades (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) needs to do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week before I look to trade it long.
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
I'm going to try to trade a tiny ONT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont) position and catch a short term Wave 5 upcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU put in bearish double top cycle highs yesterday with last Thursday's cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, which is probably the Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs.
For all practical purposes HUI's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market ended on 5-11-06 at 401.69 (XAU at 171.71). HUI/XAU/gold have only risen about 5% from 5-11-06 to the recent cycle highs. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking (HUI probably did on 10-11-07, XAU yesterday I think) in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
Once a sell signal occurs it's time to exit. The 5% major sell signal, see annotated charts 15 and 18 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, that occurred in May 2006, correctly indicated that it was time to turn bearish on HUI/XAU.
Late last Thursday 10-11-07 HUI did a vicious -4.90% Wave A down type move to 402.42, and, in the next day or two HUI should complete a Wave C type move and bottom well below the Wave A cycle low (at 402.42) at roughly 395ish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The very bullish NEM Lead Indicator today, at +1.11% versus the XAU today/10-16, kept me from holding a short position overnight. I'll be looking to go short GDX (Gold Miners ETF, tracks HUI) or GLD (Gold ETF) early tomorrow. If HUI plunges and I miss a sharp decline, I can look to short GLD (Gold ETF), since gold is lagging HUI as it tends to do.
Most of the gold writers are bullish and many are giddy like school kids. They tend to be a very clueless and sorry bunch when it comes to market timing, which is obviously a difficult subject. The money market whipped HUI/XAU/gold since 5-11-06 and many gold writers are giddy. HUI/XAU are about 50% (that's right) above (meaning that they need to fall about 50% to reach their primary uptrend lines) their primary Secular Bull Market uptrend lines in effect since late 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. 90%+ of the gold writers are very hazardous to your wealth.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.11% versus the XAU today/on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -14.16% versus the XAU the past 34 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a large 16,788 short gold futures and options contracts (added 1751 two weeks ago, 27,946 three weeks ago, over 17,000 four weeks ago, and, a massive 53,207 five weeks ago), while liquidating 192 (5492 the prior week, 2977 three weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts.
Last Thursday's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high is potentially a very important one, it might be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle that began in October 2002.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength was rollover action, which was the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What was going on in the market was very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The point of sell signals is much more to indicate that risk has increased dramatically than it is to be a psychic nailing every cycle high. Double and even triple tops are fairly common, as is rollover action with modestly, and, much less frequently (especially for major 5% sell signals), sometimes substantially higher cycle highs occurring. SPX's (S & P 500) 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, indicated that July's cycle high at 1555.90 was a likely/potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, and, more importantly, that trading SPX long was risky, because, a very important cycle trendline had broken down.
A brief rockets summary (none are recommendations, just timing examples/info):
Because a major market downcycle may have begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Lincoln Gold, LGCP.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lgcp) looks good once it does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week.
I'm "imminently" (might Wednesday) looking to buy VG (Vonage) and ONT for short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 3 day trades (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) needs to do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week before I look to trade it long.
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
I'm going to try to trade a tiny ONT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont) position and catch a short term Wave 5 upcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
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