Trade the Cycles

Monday, October 15, 2007

I'm Looking To Day Trade The Ultra Short SPX (S & P 500) ETF SDS

Looking at SPX's (S & P 500) rebound since late Thursday (or Russell 2000, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), it's a no brainer countertrend Wave B type rebound, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, because, it's obviously not going to take out last Thursday's potentially very important cycle high (might be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle that began in October 2002).

So, I'm looking to day trade the Ultra Short SPX (S & P 500) ETF SDS (or the Ultra Short Russell 2000 (RUTX) ETF TWM) and possibly hold it overnight. I probably won't hold SDS or TWM overnight unless SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and/or RUTX clearly break their uptrend lines since 8-16-07.

The reliable Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is bearish right now, as it should be when looking to trade short, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength was rollover action, which was the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What was going on in the market was very important peaking action.

Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui). The 5% major sell signal, see annotated charts 15 and 18 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, that occurred in May 2006, correctly indicated that it was time to turn bearish on HUI/XAU.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .


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