.........The Story Today Is Humongous Fed Credit
The Fed injected a humongous $35.50 Billion into the banking system today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is fueling program buying. Also, Walmart (WMT) had some good news.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, this is rollover action, which is the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What's going on in the market is very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator = an extremely bearish -16.39% versus the XAU the past 30 sessions and was a very bearish -1.28% yesterday/10-10, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, this is rollover action, which is the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What's going on in the market is very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator = an extremely bearish -16.39% versus the XAU the past 30 sessions and was a very bearish -1.28% yesterday/10-10, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:34 AM
4 Comments:
I show NEM down 1.25% to the XAU over the last five day that this breakout occured at. This is even with them having a merger announcement. I think this rally might have legs but time will tell.
By
Anonymous, at 11:05 AM
HUI/XAU have a large bearish spike on today's candle. Today appears to be a short term cycle high and might be the very important Cyclical Bull Market cycle high. The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.28% versus the XAU yesterday/on 10-10, -0.25% versus the XAU on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, the past 5 days. When the downcycle begins it's likely to be very nasty. We saw a little bit of that today.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:47 AM
I'm asking as a novice--What's to keep the Fed from continuing to inject funds, to keep the MM and the PM's afloat for.....ever"
Thanks!
By
jckenemer, at 1:13 PM
You're welcome. The Federal Reserve Bank, like any bank, doesn't have an infinite ability to lend. Fed credit shrank by -$3.268 Billion in the five day period ending 10-10-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, the big program traders aren't completely mindless robots (maybe 50-75%), and, are subject to market cycles, news (like Walmart good news today versus might have been bad) etc. In downcycles Fed credit has a less positive effect than in upcycles, and, the more severe/important the downcycle, the less effect Fed credit tends to have.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:23 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home