.......The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY
The NEM Lead Indicator = an extremely bearish -16.39% versus the XAU the past 30 sessions and a very bearish -1.28% today/10-10, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The more important the cycle high/low the more bearish or bullish the NEM Lead Indicator tends to become, and, the longer it takes for HUI/XAU to peak or bottom after the NEM Lead Indicator starts to become extremely bearish or bullish (lag time for the NEM Lead Indicator tends to be longer for more important cycle highs/lows).
The NEM Lead Indicator the past 30 sessions and the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (read on) the past 4-5+ weeks obviously jive with HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71.
Looking at HUI's 5 day intraday chart (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), combined with today's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (-1.28% versus the XAU today/on 10-10), it looks like HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 might have peaked today, because, the session cycle high occurred about a third of the way into the session, followed by what appears to be a significant Wave A type downcycle, then a countertrend Wave B upcycle occurred, and, HUI/XAU might have entered a Wave C type downcycle just before session's end.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.28% versus the XAU today/on 10-10, -0.25% versus the XAU on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -16.39% versus the XAU the past 30 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a relatively modest 1751 (27,946 two weeks ago) short gold futures and options contracts (added over 17,000 three weeks ago and a massive 53,207 four weeks ago), while liquidating 5492 (2977 the prior week) long gold futures and options contracts.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The more important the cycle high/low the more bearish or bullish the NEM Lead Indicator tends to become, and, the longer it takes for HUI/XAU to peak or bottom after the NEM Lead Indicator starts to become extremely bearish or bullish (lag time for the NEM Lead Indicator tends to be longer for more important cycle highs/lows).
The NEM Lead Indicator the past 30 sessions and the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (read on) the past 4-5+ weeks obviously jive with HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71.
Looking at HUI's 5 day intraday chart (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), combined with today's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (-1.28% versus the XAU today/on 10-10), it looks like HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 might have peaked today, because, the session cycle high occurred about a third of the way into the session, followed by what appears to be a significant Wave A type downcycle, then a countertrend Wave B upcycle occurred, and, HUI/XAU might have entered a Wave C type downcycle just before session's end.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.28% versus the XAU today/on 10-10, -0.25% versus the XAU on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -16.39% versus the XAU the past 30 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a relatively modest 1751 (27,946 two weeks ago) short gold futures and options contracts (added over 17,000 three weeks ago and a massive 53,207 four weeks ago), while liquidating 5492 (2977 the prior week) long gold futures and options contracts.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:42 PM
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