HUI, XAU, Gold Countertrend Wave B Type Rebound Early Today
HUI, XAU, and gold are not surprisingly doing a countertrend Wave B type rebound early today, that's technically part of a larger very short term Wave C downcycle, as long as Friday's cycle high at 397.29 holds, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
HUI's cycle high on Friday was 397.29 versus today's likely bearish double top cycle high at 397.23. So, what I said in the previous post is still true (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/im-looking-to-short-gdx-gold-miners-etf.html).
HUI, XAU, and gold entered Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 5-11-06) on 9-21-07. All HUI, XAU, and gold did from 5-11-06 until 9-21-07 (10-1-07 for gold) was to rise +0.14%, +0.85%, and, +3.46%. Their chart patterns are so obviously bearish both short term (HUI double top on 9-21-07/10-1-07 http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, the XAU has a triple top) and long term (HUI triple top, XAU quadruple top) it's amazing how few people have mentioned it. I've seen one Blog writer mention HUI's long term double top at 401.69/402.27 on 5-11-06/9-21-07, and, for all I know he reads my Blog and that's how he became aware of it.
Right now the Trade the Cycles picture for HUI, XAU, and gold is very clear, and, I'm looking to short the gold miners ETF GDX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. 10-2-07's mini crash was a 2%+ sell signal that confirms that the huge spike move that began on 8-16-07 (Wave 5 of Wave B of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06) probably peaked on 9-21-07 (cycle highs at 402.27 and 173.17), and, more importantly, that risk was too high to trade long.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.06% versus the XAU on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -14.86% versus the XAU the past 28 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a relatively modest 1751 (27,946 two weeks ago) short gold futures and options contracts (added over 17,000 three weeks ago and a massive 53,207 four weeks ago), while liquidating 5492 (2977 the prior week) long gold futures and options contracts.
See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/major-warning-gold-to-get-annihilated.html, Tuesday 9-25's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/bearish-huge-transitory-huixau-spike.html, and, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/this-is-it.html for additional important precious metals sector analysis.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI's cycle high on Friday was 397.29 versus today's likely bearish double top cycle high at 397.23. So, what I said in the previous post is still true (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/im-looking-to-short-gdx-gold-miners-etf.html).
HUI, XAU, and gold entered Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 5-11-06) on 9-21-07. All HUI, XAU, and gold did from 5-11-06 until 9-21-07 (10-1-07 for gold) was to rise +0.14%, +0.85%, and, +3.46%. Their chart patterns are so obviously bearish both short term (HUI double top on 9-21-07/10-1-07 http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, the XAU has a triple top) and long term (HUI triple top, XAU quadruple top) it's amazing how few people have mentioned it. I've seen one Blog writer mention HUI's long term double top at 401.69/402.27 on 5-11-06/9-21-07, and, for all I know he reads my Blog and that's how he became aware of it.
Right now the Trade the Cycles picture for HUI, XAU, and gold is very clear, and, I'm looking to short the gold miners ETF GDX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. 10-2-07's mini crash was a 2%+ sell signal that confirms that the huge spike move that began on 8-16-07 (Wave 5 of Wave B of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06) probably peaked on 9-21-07 (cycle highs at 402.27 and 173.17), and, more importantly, that risk was too high to trade long.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.06% versus the XAU on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -14.86% versus the XAU the past 28 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a relatively modest 1751 (27,946 two weeks ago) short gold futures and options contracts (added over 17,000 three weeks ago and a massive 53,207 four weeks ago), while liquidating 5492 (2977 the prior week) long gold futures and options contracts.
See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/major-warning-gold-to-get-annihilated.html, Tuesday 9-25's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/bearish-huge-transitory-huixau-spike.html, and, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/this-is-it.html for additional important precious metals sector analysis.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:55 AM
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