....................Today Might Have Been It
Today might be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, cycle began October 2002), HUI (cycle since late 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), XAU (cycle since late 2000), and gold (cycle since April 2001), not to mention potentially many other indexes.
The daily candles have bearish large (HUI's is very large/looks important) spikes, which tend to punctuate/mark cycle highs, just as large bullish inverse spikes tend to punctuate/mark cycle lows.
The large intraday Wave A type plunges that occurred today have the look of a major turning point/sell signal. HUI had a -4.90% mini crash from session cycle high to cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which has the look of a major sell signal/technical breakdown. There's a good chance that today's cycle highs for HUI, XAU, and gold are Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the cycle since late 2000 for HUI/XAU and since April 2001 for gold, and, I'm repeating myself obviously, SPX's Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle since October 2002 might have occurred today.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength is rollover action, which is the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What's going on in the market is very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The point of sell signals is much more to indicate that risk has increased dramatically than it is to be a psychic nailing every cycle high. Double and even triple tops are fairly common, as is rollover action with modestly, and, much less frequently (especially for major 5% sell signals), sometimes substantially higher cycle highs occurring. SPX's (S & P 500) 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, indicated that July's cycle high at 1555.90 was a likely/potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, and, more importantly, that trading SPX long was risky, because, a very important cycle trendline had broken down.
The NEM Lead Indicator = an extremely bearish -14.77% versus the XAU the past 31 sessions and was a very bearish -1.28% yesterday/10-10, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.62% versus the XAU today/on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -14.77% versus the XAU the past 31 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a relatively modest 1751 (27,946 two weeks ago) short gold futures and options contracts (added over 17,000 three weeks ago and a massive 53,207 four weeks ago), while liquidating 5492 (2977 the prior week) long gold futures and options contracts.
To answer the question about Fed credit, the Federal Reserve Bank, like any bank, doesn't have an infinite ability to lend. Fed credit shrank by -$3.268 Billion in the five day period ending 10-10-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, the big program traders aren't completely mindless robots (maybe 50-75%), and, are subject to market cycles, news (like Walmart good news today versus might have been bad) etc. In downcycles Fed credit has a less positive effect than in upcycles, and, the more severe/important the downcycle, the less effect Fed credit tends to have.
The Fed injected a humongous $35.50 Billion into the banking system today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which fueled program buying. Also, Walmart (WMT) had some good news.
A brief rockets summary:
I'm "imminently" (might tomorrow) looking to buy VG (Vonage) and ONT for short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 3 day trades (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) might have hit a monthly cycle high today.
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
I'm going to try to trade a tiny ONT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont) position and catch a short term Wave 5 upcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The daily candles have bearish large (HUI's is very large/looks important) spikes, which tend to punctuate/mark cycle highs, just as large bullish inverse spikes tend to punctuate/mark cycle lows.
The large intraday Wave A type plunges that occurred today have the look of a major turning point/sell signal. HUI had a -4.90% mini crash from session cycle high to cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which has the look of a major sell signal/technical breakdown. There's a good chance that today's cycle highs for HUI, XAU, and gold are Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the cycle since late 2000 for HUI/XAU and since April 2001 for gold, and, I'm repeating myself obviously, SPX's Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle since October 2002 might have occurred today.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength is rollover action, which is the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What's going on in the market is very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The point of sell signals is much more to indicate that risk has increased dramatically than it is to be a psychic nailing every cycle high. Double and even triple tops are fairly common, as is rollover action with modestly, and, much less frequently (especially for major 5% sell signals), sometimes substantially higher cycle highs occurring. SPX's (S & P 500) 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, indicated that July's cycle high at 1555.90 was a likely/potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, and, more importantly, that trading SPX long was risky, because, a very important cycle trendline had broken down.
The NEM Lead Indicator = an extremely bearish -14.77% versus the XAU the past 31 sessions and was a very bearish -1.28% yesterday/10-10, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.62% versus the XAU today/on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -14.77% versus the XAU the past 31 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a relatively modest 1751 (27,946 two weeks ago) short gold futures and options contracts (added over 17,000 three weeks ago and a massive 53,207 four weeks ago), while liquidating 5492 (2977 the prior week) long gold futures and options contracts.
To answer the question about Fed credit, the Federal Reserve Bank, like any bank, doesn't have an infinite ability to lend. Fed credit shrank by -$3.268 Billion in the five day period ending 10-10-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, the big program traders aren't completely mindless robots (maybe 50-75%), and, are subject to market cycles, news (like Walmart good news today versus might have been bad) etc. In downcycles Fed credit has a less positive effect than in upcycles, and, the more severe/important the downcycle, the less effect Fed credit tends to have.
The Fed injected a humongous $35.50 Billion into the banking system today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which fueled program buying. Also, Walmart (WMT) had some good news.
A brief rockets summary:
I'm "imminently" (might tomorrow) looking to buy VG (Vonage) and ONT for short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 3 day trades (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) might have hit a monthly cycle high today.
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
I'm going to try to trade a tiny ONT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont) position and catch a short term Wave 5 upcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:44 PM
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