.......China's Huge Spike Move The Past Year
China's had a huge spike move the past year, as discussed in the comments to previous message (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/spx-s-p-500-is-much-bigger-factor-than.html), see the five year chart (doesn't show the current month's/October's spike move) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=. One can see October in the one year chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=.
China's huge spike move (more than tripled) the past year obviously has the look of a third/final Wave 5 blowoff spike move, and, having taken a very quick and dirty look at the Elliott Wave count, it looks like it might be in the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 spike move now.
The candles in recent months have been very large, which obviously supports the Wave 5 of Wave 5 case, see the five year chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=, which doesn't show October, but, October has brought more spiking action, and, the rate of ascent is rolling over/flattening out, see the three month chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=.
So, China's stock market is probably peaking now along with the US, which means that deflation is going to be the primary factor in the world not inflation. This is obviously already the case in the US and much of the world, that deflation has set in in a big way due to the huge real estate/mortgage/credit bust, but, massive liquidity/Fed credit has allowed the stock market to continue to rise due to largely mindless program buying. The rich get richer and the unsuspecting middle class and poor get left holding the bag. What else is new.
........ http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
China's huge spike move (more than tripled) the past year obviously has the look of a third/final Wave 5 blowoff spike move, and, having taken a very quick and dirty look at the Elliott Wave count, it looks like it might be in the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 spike move now.
The candles in recent months have been very large, which obviously supports the Wave 5 of Wave 5 case, see the five year chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=, which doesn't show October, but, October has brought more spiking action, and, the rate of ascent is rolling over/flattening out, see the three month chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=.
So, China's stock market is probably peaking now along with the US, which means that deflation is going to be the primary factor in the world not inflation. This is obviously already the case in the US and much of the world, that deflation has set in in a big way due to the huge real estate/mortgage/credit bust, but, massive liquidity/Fed credit has allowed the stock market to continue to rise due to largely mindless program buying. The rich get richer and the unsuspecting middle class and poor get left holding the bag. What else is new.
........ http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:28 PM
1 Comments:
I agree that China is in a stock market bubble but the conventional wisdom is that China will not let anything happen to its economy or markets until after the Olympics in 08. The bubble is definately there but this might be 1998 instead of 2000 relative to the tech bubble.
J
By
Anonymous, at 4:07 AM
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