Transmeridian Exploration Inc. (TMY)
Transmeridian Exploration Inc. (TMY) is a good trade candidate (not a recommendation, this Blog describes how to use the Trade the Cycles system), and, has had strong insider buying this year and last year, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TMY.
A Cyclical Bear Market cycle low probably/very likely occurred at 1.04 in July 2007, for the Cyclical Bear Market that began at 7.25 in Spring 2006. Note the Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, with the countertrend Wave B cycle high occurring at 4.25 in Winter 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.
Since putting in a minor intermediate term cycle high at 2.50 in August 2007, TMY has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intermediate term downcycle, that appears to have bottomed at 1.68 today, then rallied +13.09% to a session cycle high 1.90, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.
In the five day intraday chart one can see that TMY hasn't broken it's short term downtrend line, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Obviously one should wait (as a minimum) for a strong break above that short term downtrend line before looking to buy an intraday or longer Wave 2 type pullback.
If TMY fills today's upside gap at 1.92 tomorrow that probably will confirm that it hit an intermediate term cycle low at 1.68 today, but, usually it's wise to wait for a strong multi day Wave 1 upcycle/2% buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline, 5% follow through for major cycles), then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
In simple terms, waiting for TMY to rise above 2.00 then pull back/do a short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically) makes sense, especially since the market/S & P 500 (SPX) probably entered a major downcycle (and Bear Market) on 10-11-07.
Because a major market downcycle may have begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
A Cyclical Bear Market cycle low probably/very likely occurred at 1.04 in July 2007, for the Cyclical Bear Market that began at 7.25 in Spring 2006. Note the Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, with the countertrend Wave B cycle high occurring at 4.25 in Winter 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.
Since putting in a minor intermediate term cycle high at 2.50 in August 2007, TMY has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intermediate term downcycle, that appears to have bottomed at 1.68 today, then rallied +13.09% to a session cycle high 1.90, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.
In the five day intraday chart one can see that TMY hasn't broken it's short term downtrend line, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Obviously one should wait (as a minimum) for a strong break above that short term downtrend line before looking to buy an intraday or longer Wave 2 type pullback.
If TMY fills today's upside gap at 1.92 tomorrow that probably will confirm that it hit an intermediate term cycle low at 1.68 today, but, usually it's wise to wait for a strong multi day Wave 1 upcycle/2% buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline, 5% follow through for major cycles), then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
In simple terms, waiting for TMY to rise above 2.00 then pull back/do a short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically) makes sense, especially since the market/S & P 500 (SPX) probably entered a major downcycle (and Bear Market) on 10-11-07.
Because a major market downcycle may have begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:12 PM
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