An SPX (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Appears To Have Begun
An SPX (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle appears to have begun late yesterday (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), but, the Wave A downcycle trend line on the daily chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) since 10-11-07's (likely) very important Cyclical Bull Market (since October 2002) cycle highs hasn't been broken yet, but, probably will be tomorrow.
HUI/XAU are definitely doing a strong countertrend Wave B type upcycle since late yesterday's cycle lows, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. HUI/XAU are rising toward their downtrend lines since 10-11-07's (likely) very important Cyclical Bull Market (since late 2000) cycle highs, and, it looks like I'll be shorting GDX (Gold Miners ETF that tracks HUI) possibly tomorrow, to catch an HUI decline down to about 385-395 versus yesterday's cycle low at 399.81.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) are probably still in a short term Wave A downcycle (appears that way on the daily chart, and, there's a very bearish NEM Lead Indicator the past two days, at -2.88% versus the XAU), in which they'll probably break their minor intermediate term upcycle trendlines since 8-16-07, and, possibly hit 2% minor intermediate term cycle sell signals.
SPX's (S & P 500) uptrend line since 8-16-07 has broken down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX is bordering on a 2% follow through (after breaking the uptrend line) minor intermediate term cycle sell signal.
Since last Thursday 10-11-07's likely very important Cyclical Bull Market (and minor intermediate term since 8-16-07) cycle high for SPX (S & P 500), SPX has done a short term (likely) Wave A downcycle (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern), that might have bottomed late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note SPX's bullish large inverse spike yesterday.
SPX (S & P 500) should do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle for few days, probably started late yesterday, during which I'm probably going to aggressively (large positions) short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (tracks HUI), and short the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) via the Ultra Short ETF TWM.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern for a few days. I'll be looking to go short shortly after I think Wave 5 of the short term Wave B has peaked.
Notice that the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) probably peaked in July at 856.48 versus a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high at 852.06 on 10-11-07, so, RUT is probably in a substantial Wave C type decline that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle low at 736.00 on 8-16-07. If RUT bottoms at 700ish then it has about 20% to fall from it's countertrend Wave B cycle high at 852.06 on 10-11-07.
HUI/XAU put in bearish double top cycle highs on Monday 10-15-07 with Thursday 10-11-07's cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, which is probably the Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs.
For all practical purposes HUI's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market ended on 5-11-06 at 401.69 (XAU at 171.71). HUI/XAU/gold have only risen about 5% from 5-11-06 to the recent cycle highs. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking (HUI probably did on 10-11-07, XAU on Monday) in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
Once a sell signal occurs it's time to exit. Actually, I hopefully exit earlier using the Elliott Wave count. The 5% major sell signal, see annotated charts 15 and 18 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, that occurred in May 2006, correctly indicated that it was time to turn bearish on HUI/XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.88% versus the XAU today/on 10-18, -2.00% on 10-17, +1.11% on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -17.04% versus the XAU the past 36 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a large 16,788 short gold futures and options contracts (added 1751 two weeks ago, 27,946 three weeks ago, over 17,000 four weeks ago, and, a massive 53,207 five weeks ago), while liquidating 192 (5492 the prior week, 2977 three weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts.
Gold is lagging HUI/XAU as it tends to do. Gold was still rising yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold), not sure about today, while HUI probably peaked on 10-11-07 and the XAU probably peaked on 10-15-07.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength was rollover action, which was the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What was going on in the market was very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The WMT Lead indicator has been -0.14% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-18, +0.10% on 10-17, -0.61% on 10-16, -0.46% on 10-15, -0.14% on 10-12.
The point of sell signals is much more to indicate that risk has increased dramatically than it is to be a psychic nailing every cycle high. Double and even triple tops are fairly common, as is rollover action with modestly, and, much less frequently (especially for major 5% sell signals), sometimes substantially higher cycle highs occurring. SPX's (S & P 500) 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, indicated that July's cycle high at 1555.90 was a likely/potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, and, more importantly, that trading SPX long was risky, because, a very important cycle trendline had broken down.
A brief rockets summary (none are recommendations, just timing examples/info):
Because a major market downcycle may have begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) needs to do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week before I look to trade it long. I'm excited about trading this one. I probably will trade this one once it does a monthly downcycle.
Lincoln Gold, LGCP.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lgcp) looks good once it does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week.
I'm "imminently" looking to/might buy VG (Vonage) and ONT for short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 3 day trades (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
I'm going to try to trade a tiny ONT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont) position and catch a short term Wave 5 upcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU are definitely doing a strong countertrend Wave B type upcycle since late yesterday's cycle lows, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. HUI/XAU are rising toward their downtrend lines since 10-11-07's (likely) very important Cyclical Bull Market (since late 2000) cycle highs, and, it looks like I'll be shorting GDX (Gold Miners ETF that tracks HUI) possibly tomorrow, to catch an HUI decline down to about 385-395 versus yesterday's cycle low at 399.81.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) are probably still in a short term Wave A downcycle (appears that way on the daily chart, and, there's a very bearish NEM Lead Indicator the past two days, at -2.88% versus the XAU), in which they'll probably break their minor intermediate term upcycle trendlines since 8-16-07, and, possibly hit 2% minor intermediate term cycle sell signals.
SPX's (S & P 500) uptrend line since 8-16-07 has broken down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX is bordering on a 2% follow through (after breaking the uptrend line) minor intermediate term cycle sell signal.
Since last Thursday 10-11-07's likely very important Cyclical Bull Market (and minor intermediate term since 8-16-07) cycle high for SPX (S & P 500), SPX has done a short term (likely) Wave A downcycle (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern), that might have bottomed late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note SPX's bullish large inverse spike yesterday.
SPX (S & P 500) should do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle for few days, probably started late yesterday, during which I'm probably going to aggressively (large positions) short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (tracks HUI), and short the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) via the Ultra Short ETF TWM.
SPX's (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern for a few days. I'll be looking to go short shortly after I think Wave 5 of the short term Wave B has peaked.
Notice that the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) probably peaked in July at 856.48 versus a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high at 852.06 on 10-11-07, so, RUT is probably in a substantial Wave C type decline that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle low at 736.00 on 8-16-07. If RUT bottoms at 700ish then it has about 20% to fall from it's countertrend Wave B cycle high at 852.06 on 10-11-07.
HUI/XAU put in bearish double top cycle highs on Monday 10-15-07 with Thursday 10-11-07's cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, which is probably the Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs.
For all practical purposes HUI's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market ended on 5-11-06 at 401.69 (XAU at 171.71). HUI/XAU/gold have only risen about 5% from 5-11-06 to the recent cycle highs. Technically HUI/XAU's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market is peaking (HUI probably did on 10-11-07, XAU on Monday) in dramatic rollover mode versus 5-11-06's cycle highs at 401.69/171.71 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
Once a sell signal occurs it's time to exit. Actually, I hopefully exit earlier using the Elliott Wave count. The 5% major sell signal, see annotated charts 15 and 18 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, that occurred in May 2006, correctly indicated that it was time to turn bearish on HUI/XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.88% versus the XAU today/on 10-18, -2.00% on 10-17, +1.11% on 10-16, -0.31% on 10-15, -0.19% on 10-12, +1.62% on 10-11, -1.28% on 10-10, -0.25% on 10-9, -0.06% on 10-8, -0.57% on 10-5, -1.17% on 10-4, +0.37% on 10-3, +1.35% on 10-2, +0.33% on 10-1, -0.41% on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -17.04% versus the XAU the past 36 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The recent gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a large 16,788 short gold futures and options contracts (added 1751 two weeks ago, 27,946 three weeks ago, over 17,000 four weeks ago, and, a massive 53,207 five weeks ago), while liquidating 192 (5492 the prior week, 2977 three weeks ago) long gold futures and options contracts.
Gold is lagging HUI/XAU as it tends to do. Gold was still rising yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold), not sure about today, while HUI probably peaked on 10-11-07 and the XAU probably peaked on 10-15-07.
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is up all of 1.30% since July, thanks to massive Fed credit due to the mortgage/credit crisis. Once the market/SPX breaks down nearly sectors will get whacked. SPX actually broke down a few months ago, hitting a 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the recent strength was rollover action, which was the upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 running out of gas. What was going on in the market was very important peaking action.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see the six month chart (shows WMT, SPX, HUI relative performance) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The WMT Lead indicator has been -0.14% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-18, +0.10% on 10-17, -0.61% on 10-16, -0.46% on 10-15, -0.14% on 10-12.
The point of sell signals is much more to indicate that risk has increased dramatically than it is to be a psychic nailing every cycle high. Double and even triple tops are fairly common, as is rollover action with modestly, and, much less frequently (especially for major 5% sell signals), sometimes substantially higher cycle highs occurring. SPX's (S & P 500) 5% major sell signal, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, indicated that July's cycle high at 1555.90 was a likely/potential Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, and, more importantly, that trading SPX long was risky, because, a very important cycle trendline had broken down.
A brief rockets summary (none are recommendations, just timing examples/info):
Because a major market downcycle may have begun one has to be very careful about trading rockets right now (should be very careful anyway with rockets), if one trades them at all. Generally it's a good idea to trade with the wind/market at your back. Trading long in the midst of a major or even minor downcycle is risky.
Spicy Pickle (SPKL.OB, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl) needs to do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week before I look to trade it long. I'm excited about trading this one. I probably will trade this one once it does a monthly downcycle.
Lincoln Gold, LGCP.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lgcp) looks good once it does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle for about a week.
I'm "imminently" looking to/might buy VG (Vonage) and ONT for short term Wave 5 upcycle 1 to 3 day trades (trade a Wave 5 short term upcycle of a monthly upcycle).
I'm looking to trade a tiny ICO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ico) position once it does Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle.
I'm going to try to trade a tiny ONT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont) position and catch a short term Wave 5 upcycle.
And you gold manipulation theorists, I'm still waiting to hear from you! See http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/10/to-gold-manipulation-theorists.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
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