SPX's (S & P 500) Very Short Term Wave A Downcycle Appears To Have Bottomed Early Today
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) very short term Wave A downcycle (of a short term Wave C since late Wednesday) since late Wednesday's short term countertrend Wave B cycle high appears to/might have bottomed early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
There's a large bullish inverse spike on today's candle right now (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, right now, it could disappear by session's end), which simply means in this case, due to the bearish short term Wave C downcycle since late Wednesday, that SPX (S & P 500) is likely to bounce/do a very short term countertrend Wave B type rebound (of a short term Wave C) for a session or two.
The additional SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) downside early today, after yesterday's massacre, makes a clear cut bearish scenario even more clear cut. In the next session or two I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, and short RUT (Russell 2000), via TWM, the Ultra Short RUT ETF. The WMT (+0.03% versus SPX on 11-1) and NEM (+1.04% versus the XAU on 11-1) Lead Indicators should both be bearish at the time.
The good monthly employment data today was seen as bearish by the market, because, it obviously lowers the probability that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates.
SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend short term Wave B upcycle on 10-24-07 (likely Cyclical Bull Market (began October 2002) and minor intermediate term cycle (began 8-16-07) high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, Wave B obviously peaked on Wednesday, which means that SPX (S & P 500) is in a short term Wave C downcycle.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
There's a large bullish inverse spike on today's candle right now (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, right now, it could disappear by session's end), which simply means in this case, due to the bearish short term Wave C downcycle since late Wednesday, that SPX (S & P 500) is likely to bounce/do a very short term countertrend Wave B type rebound (of a short term Wave C) for a session or two.
The additional SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) downside early today, after yesterday's massacre, makes a clear cut bearish scenario even more clear cut. In the next session or two I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, and short RUT (Russell 2000), via TWM, the Ultra Short RUT ETF. The WMT (+0.03% versus SPX on 11-1) and NEM (+1.04% versus the XAU on 11-1) Lead Indicators should both be bearish at the time.
The good monthly employment data today was seen as bearish by the market, because, it obviously lowers the probability that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates.
SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend short term Wave B upcycle on 10-24-07 (likely Cyclical Bull Market (began October 2002) and minor intermediate term cycle (began 8-16-07) high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, Wave B obviously peaked on Wednesday, which means that SPX (S & P 500) is in a short term Wave C downcycle.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:54 AM
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