My Mother Passed Away On 11-5-07 And HUI's Elliott Wave Count
My mother passed away on 11-5-07. Hopefully she will rest in peace.
See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=c&c= for HUI's 3 month candlestick chart. On 8-16-07 the final Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle of the long term rollover upcycle since mid June 2006 and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 (October 2000 for HUI) began.
A big Wave 1 of Wave 5 peaked on 9-21-07. A puny Wave 3 peaked in mid October, and, a respectable (big assist from a huge NEM spike due to a favorable earnings report, the weak US Dollar, and very strong oil) third/final Wave 5 peaked on 11-7-07, which means that HUI/XAU are probably now in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, with downside targets at the Secular Bull Market trendlines at 220ish and 95ish.
HUI/XAU are probably still in a short term Wave A downcycle since 11-7-07. I'll look to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, in the countertrend Wave B upcycle, that should do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern for roughly a week or two.
The commodity bust is a no brainer due to the major economic bust that is very deflationary. The fact that the gold "gurus" didn't realize that very important peaking action was occurring and that it was time to get out speaks volumes about the kind of analysts they really are in most cases.
The near term monetary (M2) inflation (M2 grew by over $100 Billion in August)/massive liquidity helped to spike commodities and stocks. The Fed has been injecting massive liquidity into the banking system to help the mortgage/credit crisis, which was a near term plus for commodities, but, the commodity bust has begun, at least for gold/silver and probably oil.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=c&c= for HUI's 3 month candlestick chart. On 8-16-07 the final Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle of the long term rollover upcycle since mid June 2006 and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 (October 2000 for HUI) began.
A big Wave 1 of Wave 5 peaked on 9-21-07. A puny Wave 3 peaked in mid October, and, a respectable (big assist from a huge NEM spike due to a favorable earnings report, the weak US Dollar, and very strong oil) third/final Wave 5 peaked on 11-7-07, which means that HUI/XAU are probably now in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, with downside targets at the Secular Bull Market trendlines at 220ish and 95ish.
HUI/XAU are probably still in a short term Wave A downcycle since 11-7-07. I'll look to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, in the countertrend Wave B upcycle, that should do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern for roughly a week or two.
The commodity bust is a no brainer due to the major economic bust that is very deflationary. The fact that the gold "gurus" didn't realize that very important peaking action was occurring and that it was time to get out speaks volumes about the kind of analysts they really are in most cases.
The near term monetary (M2) inflation (M2 grew by over $100 Billion in August)/massive liquidity helped to spike commodities and stocks. The Fed has been injecting massive liquidity into the banking system to help the mortgage/credit crisis, which was a near term plus for commodities, but, the commodity bust has begun, at least for gold/silver and probably oil.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:18 AM
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