Happy Thanksgiving And SPX (S & P 500), HUI, XAU, Gold Analysis
I wish everyone a happy and healthy Thanksgiving.
Concerning SPX (S & P 500), it's in, until proven otherwise, the final Wave C of Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle since putting in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07 (cycle began in October 2002), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looks like SPX might have a bit more downside.
At important turning points it's better to wait for cycle trendlines (downtrend or uptrend lines) to clearly be broken (use buy/sell signals, 2% follow through (after breaking through the cycle trendline) for minor buy/sell signals and 5% for major ones), as opposed to using the Elliott Wave count to try to pick a top or bottom, that is, wait for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle or whatever it takes to clearly break the cycle's downtrend (or uptrend) line and flash a buy (or sell) signal.
For trading monthly (or short term) upcycles, that typically last about 3-4 weeks, one can use the Elliott Wave count to exit in the third/final short term Wave 5 upcycle, and, usually a bearish large spike occurs on the candlestick chart at or near the monthly cycle high.
Upcycles almost always have Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns, and, downcycles almost always have Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns, with Elliott Wave patterns usually occurring within Elliott Wave patterns.
One has to look at a lot of daily and (Yahoo 1 and 5 day) intraday charts to get good at it, and, one has to get a good understanding of the cycles or will be very likely to get the wrong Elliott Wave count. The reason why one rarely sees an article with the correct Elliott Wave count is that very few (practically no one) analysts/writers understand cycles. Even when the correct Elliott Wave count is arrived at it's likely to be mostly luck, since very few understand cycles.
HUI/XAU look like they might still need to do/complete the final Wave C of Wave C of the short term Wave A downcycle since putting in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Gold might have put in a very bearish double top with the 1980 Secular Bull Market cycle high, I still need to check the numbers, so, keep in mind that even I may be too optimistic about HUI/XAU/gold, partly because of the potential very long term bearish gold double top, but, more so for the mortgage/credit bust/debacle that continues to unfold. GM might be forced into bankruptcy I think I heard and many others obviously. The surprise might be to the downside of 220ish for HUI, 95ish for the XAU, and, 500ish for gold. Welcome to DEFLATION. May the force be with you. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Concerning SPX (S & P 500), it's in, until proven otherwise, the final Wave C of Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle since putting in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07 (cycle began in October 2002), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looks like SPX might have a bit more downside.
At important turning points it's better to wait for cycle trendlines (downtrend or uptrend lines) to clearly be broken (use buy/sell signals, 2% follow through (after breaking through the cycle trendline) for minor buy/sell signals and 5% for major ones), as opposed to using the Elliott Wave count to try to pick a top or bottom, that is, wait for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle or whatever it takes to clearly break the cycle's downtrend (or uptrend) line and flash a buy (or sell) signal.
For trading monthly (or short term) upcycles, that typically last about 3-4 weeks, one can use the Elliott Wave count to exit in the third/final short term Wave 5 upcycle, and, usually a bearish large spike occurs on the candlestick chart at or near the monthly cycle high.
Upcycles almost always have Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns, and, downcycles almost always have Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns, with Elliott Wave patterns usually occurring within Elliott Wave patterns.
One has to look at a lot of daily and (Yahoo 1 and 5 day) intraday charts to get good at it, and, one has to get a good understanding of the cycles or will be very likely to get the wrong Elliott Wave count. The reason why one rarely sees an article with the correct Elliott Wave count is that very few (practically no one) analysts/writers understand cycles. Even when the correct Elliott Wave count is arrived at it's likely to be mostly luck, since very few understand cycles.
HUI/XAU look like they might still need to do/complete the final Wave C of Wave C of the short term Wave A downcycle since putting in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Gold might have put in a very bearish double top with the 1980 Secular Bull Market cycle high, I still need to check the numbers, so, keep in mind that even I may be too optimistic about HUI/XAU/gold, partly because of the potential very long term bearish gold double top, but, more so for the mortgage/credit bust/debacle that continues to unfold. GM might be forced into bankruptcy I think I heard and many others obviously. The surprise might be to the downside of 220ish for HUI, 95ish for the XAU, and, 500ish for gold. Welcome to DEFLATION. May the force be with you. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:05 AM
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