The Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Since Early Monday For HUI/XAU May Have Peaked
The Wave 5 short term upcycle since early Monday for HUI/XAU (NEM's began 10-18-06) may have peaked early today. This of course means that the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU might have peaked, but, another short term upcycle might occur in which the monthly upcycle peaks in rollover/flattening out mode.
The collapsing XAU Implied Volatility recently, from 39.400 on Thursday 10-19 to 35.375 yesterday, which is more than a 10% decline versus the XAU's +6.07% rise in the same timeframe, which is a very sharp 4%+ rise in complacency, suggests that a rollover short term upcycle is unlikely, and, even if it occurs, would be too risky to trade long.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish late in the session yesterday after being bullish earlier in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. This correctly pointed to some weakness early today following very brief strength at the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. For the session the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.61% versus the XAU yesterday.
NEM filled today's downside gap at 44.63 and the XAU filled today's downside gap at 134.81. William's %R for HUI/XAU is very near an overbought extreme at 0ish (NEM's is overbought/above -20) and HUI/XAU are very near the top of their respective monthly upcycle (since 10-4-06) channels.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, but, it ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4, so, NEM is in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The collapsing XAU Implied Volatility recently, from 39.400 on Thursday 10-19 to 35.375 yesterday, which is more than a 10% decline versus the XAU's +6.07% rise in the same timeframe, which is a very sharp 4%+ rise in complacency, suggests that a rollover short term upcycle is unlikely, and, even if it occurs, would be too risky to trade long.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish late in the session yesterday after being bullish earlier in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. This correctly pointed to some weakness early today following very brief strength at the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. For the session the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.61% versus the XAU yesterday.
NEM filled today's downside gap at 44.63 and the XAU filled today's downside gap at 134.81. William's %R for HUI/XAU is very near an overbought extreme at 0ish (NEM's is overbought/above -20) and HUI/XAU are very near the top of their respective monthly upcycle (since 10-4-06) channels.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, but, it ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4, so, NEM is in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:26 AM
