Trade the Cycles

Monday, October 23, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Turned Bearish/Much Less Bullish Late In The Session

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.62% versus the XAU today, but, turned bearish late in the session, since it had been +1.50% versus the XAU earlier in the session. Reliable lead indicator NEM's Wave 5 short term upcycle (for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06) began last Wednesday at 42.09. HUI/XAU's Wave 5 short term upcycle started shortly after today's open.

HUI/XAU will probably do an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern tomorrow, since they rallied sharply from today's very early Wave 5 short term cycle lows, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, doing Elliot Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns today. So, a good entry point for short term cycle traders may occur tomorrow. Keep in mind that the Wave 5 short term upcycle may only last another session or two, today was Wave 1 of the Wave 5 short term upcycle.

The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/