Short Term Elliot Wave Count For Reliable Lead Indicator NEM
I'm confident that HUI/XAU are/were in a big Wave 3 short term upcycle (since 10-10-06 for HUI and since 10-12-06 for the XAU) for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. Wave 3 for HUI/XAU may have peaked just after today's open. However, NEM appearing to be in Wave 5 doesn't make sense. It makes sense that NEM is leading, but not by that much. Here's what's probably happening: NEM hit a Wave 3 short term cycle high at 43.75 on Monday 10-16-06, and, has probably been in a Wave 4 short term downcycle since then, with Wave A down of Wave 4 bottoming at 42.09 on Wednesday 10-18-06 and with Wave B up of Wave 4 peaking at 43.62 early today.
In Wave C down of NEM's Wave 4 short term downcycle (since Monday), which began after the Wave B cycle high at today's open at 43.62, NEM should fill it's downside gap from 10-13-06 at 41.83 or at least take out the Wave A cycle low at 42.09. NEM's sharp decline today, from the session cycle high at 43.62 to the session cycle low so far at 42.63, is a sign that Wave C of the Wave 4 short term downcycle since Monday (NEM) is probably in effect.
HUI/XAU probably began the Wave 4 short term downcycle today. So, NEM is leading, having hit a Wave 3 short term cycle high at 43.75 on Monday 10-16-06 versus HUI/XAU probably doing so early today. A good buying opportunity should arise once the Wave 4 short term downcycle for HUI/XAU bottoms in the next session or two.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
In Wave C down of NEM's Wave 4 short term downcycle (since Monday), which began after the Wave B cycle high at today's open at 43.62, NEM should fill it's downside gap from 10-13-06 at 41.83 or at least take out the Wave A cycle low at 42.09. NEM's sharp decline today, from the session cycle high at 43.62 to the session cycle low so far at 42.63, is a sign that Wave C of the Wave 4 short term downcycle since Monday (NEM) is probably in effect.
HUI/XAU probably began the Wave 4 short term downcycle today. So, NEM is leading, having hit a Wave 3 short term cycle high at 43.75 on Monday 10-16-06 versus HUI/XAU probably doing so early today. A good buying opportunity should arise once the Wave 4 short term downcycle for HUI/XAU bottoms in the next session or two.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:58 AM
