The XAU Filled It's Upside Gap at 130.13 Created At Yesterday's Open
The XAU barely filled it's upside gap (created at yesterday's open) at 130.13 (revised from 130.25) early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The final Wave 3 short term cycle high probably occurred today at 130.17 for the XAU versus 130.13 on Monday, and, occurred on Monday at 306.17 for HUI and just after Monday's open at 43.75 for reliable lead indicator NEM.
NEM has completed an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern at 42.48 yesterday, after hitting it's Wave 3 short term cycle high at 43.75 on Monday, HUI is in Wave C down since Wave 3 peaked on Monday, but, the XAU just hit a double top Wave 3 short term cycle high today, so, NEM should be in the Wave 5 short term upcycle, but, one should wait for HUI's Wave C to bottom (after which Wave 5 should begin), then assess whether it makes sense to buy.
The good news is that it's a slam dunk that bullish breakaway gaps occurred last Friday for NEM/XAU (HUI has fewer gaps, so I usually don't discuss HUI's) as previously thought, at 41.83 for NEM and at 125.39 for the XAU. This means that once HUI takes out yesterday's Wave A cycle low at 297.59 (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) one should assess whether it makes sense to buy. The fact that the NEM Lead Indicator, at a modestly bearish -0.27% versus the XAU right now, has only been slightly bearish in recent sessions, at -0.15% yesterday and at -0.16% versus the XAU on Monday, suggests that once HUI puts in a Wave C cycle low, there should be good buying opportunities.
There should be a third/Wave 5 short term upcycle and possibly another short term upcycle as the monthly upcycle (since 10-4-06) rolls over/flattens out/peaks. As I said previously, there are usually three good short term upcycles in a monthly upcycle for HUI/NEM/XAU from my experience, and, often a fourth short term upcycle occurs as the monthly upcycle rolls over/flattens out/peaks.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
NEM has completed an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern at 42.48 yesterday, after hitting it's Wave 3 short term cycle high at 43.75 on Monday, HUI is in Wave C down since Wave 3 peaked on Monday, but, the XAU just hit a double top Wave 3 short term cycle high today, so, NEM should be in the Wave 5 short term upcycle, but, one should wait for HUI's Wave C to bottom (after which Wave 5 should begin), then assess whether it makes sense to buy.
The good news is that it's a slam dunk that bullish breakaway gaps occurred last Friday for NEM/XAU (HUI has fewer gaps, so I usually don't discuss HUI's) as previously thought, at 41.83 for NEM and at 125.39 for the XAU. This means that once HUI takes out yesterday's Wave A cycle low at 297.59 (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) one should assess whether it makes sense to buy. The fact that the NEM Lead Indicator, at a modestly bearish -0.27% versus the XAU right now, has only been slightly bearish in recent sessions, at -0.15% yesterday and at -0.16% versus the XAU on Monday, suggests that once HUI puts in a Wave C cycle low, there should be good buying opportunities.
There should be a third/Wave 5 short term upcycle and possibly another short term upcycle as the monthly upcycle (since 10-4-06) rolls over/flattens out/peaks. As I said previously, there are usually three good short term upcycles in a monthly upcycle for HUI/NEM/XAU from my experience, and, often a fourth short term upcycle occurs as the monthly upcycle rolls over/flattens out/peaks.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:21 AM
