NEM's Upside Gap At 43.21 From 10-3 Got Filled
Reliable lead indicator NEM's upside gap at 43.21 from 10-3 got filled, which means that it's very likely that NEM bottomed at 39.84 on 10-4, hitting an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low right at it's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), on extremely high volume of 17.52 million shares, which means that NEM has probably begun a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
If the XAU manages to fill it's upside gap at 129.18 from 10-3 today, and it looks like it will, then Wave A of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably bottomed on 10-4-06 at 117.44, whereas HUI's will have probably bottomed on 6-13-06. Both HUI and the XAU may have important double bottoms on June 13/October 4.
The XAU may fail to fill it's upside gap at 129.18 from 10-3, which would mean that the XAU (and HUI) is likely to at least test it's cycle low from 10-4 below 118.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.81% versus the XAU yesterday. The past sixteen weeks and four days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.06% versus the XAU.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 35-40 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 30%+.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
If the XAU manages to fill it's upside gap at 129.18 from 10-3 today, and it looks like it will, then Wave A of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably bottomed on 10-4-06 at 117.44, whereas HUI's will have probably bottomed on 6-13-06. Both HUI and the XAU may have important double bottoms on June 13/October 4.
The XAU may fail to fill it's upside gap at 129.18 from 10-3, which would mean that the XAU (and HUI) is likely to at least test it's cycle low from 10-4 below 118.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.81% versus the XAU yesterday. The past sixteen weeks and four days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -17.06% versus the XAU.
The XAU's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 85-90ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, please keep that in mind. Therefore, the XAU is still 35-40 points above it's primary Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle (since October 2000) trendline, which is about 30%+.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:19 AM
