Trade the Cycles

Saturday, October 14, 2006

HUI/NEM/XAU Are In The Second/Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle

After looking at the charts some more, I'm confident that HUI/NEM/XAU are in the second/Wave 3 short term upcycle of their monthly upcycle since 10-4-06,
see (HUI ETF called GDX) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. A Wave 1 short term cycle high occurred on Monday 10-9 (NEM's was on 10-10), then a Wave 2 short term cycle low occurred on Tuesday 10-10 for HUI/GDX/NEM and on Thursday 10-12 for the XAU, so, HUI/NEM/XAU are all in the Wave 3 short term upcycle, that's likely to be a big Wave 3.

Yesterday's important upside gap filling action by HUI/NEM/XAU, which filled their large upside gaps from 10-3's huge decline, was a major buy signal/breakout. The gaps up yesterday may have been bullish breakaway gaps for HUI/NEM/XAU. I saw a number of gold/silver stocks that created large gaps at yesterday's open that are likely to be breakaway gaps. The bottom line is that it's very likely that HUI/XAU began the bullish 3-6 monthish Wave B up (of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06) on 10-4-06, see charts 1 and 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, reliable lead indicator NEM probably hit an extremely important cycle low on 10-4-06 that marks the start of a five yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).

Reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/