Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Spiked then Plunged
Reliable lead indicator NEM spiked at the open to 43.75, then quickly filled it's downside gap at 43.23 created at the open, and, is following through modestly to the downside so far after filling the downside gap. The big question right now is are Friday's downside gaps at 41.83 for NEM and at 125.39 for the XAU breakaway gaps? The NEM Lead Indicator is only slightly bearish at -0.10% versus the XAU right now, and, NEM's cycle low so far today is 43.06. There's a good chance that Friday's downside gaps (at 41.83 for NEM and at 125.39 for the XAU) are breakaway gaps and won't get filled short term, because Friday's upside gap filling action by HUI/NEM/XAU, which filled their large upside gaps from 10-3's huge decline, was a major buy signal/breakout. Also, XAU Implied Volatility (rose to 40.270 on Friday from 39.905 on Thursday) and the XAU Put/Call Ratio (rose to 0.62173 today from 0.61974 on Friday) both portend strength today. Watch reliable lead indicator NEM closely.
The Elliot Wave count for the monthly upcycle that began on 10-4-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU is that they are in the Wave 3 short term upcycle (XAU since early Thursday 10-12 and HUI/NEM since Tuesday 10-10), which is likely to be a big Wave 3 short term upcycle, BUT, a sharp pullback may occur for a session or two early this week. It looks like a good entry point/pullback is likely during the early to middle part of this week.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The Elliot Wave count for the monthly upcycle that began on 10-4-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU is that they are in the Wave 3 short term upcycle (XAU since early Thursday 10-12 and HUI/NEM since Tuesday 10-10), which is likely to be a big Wave 3 short term upcycle, BUT, a sharp pullback may occur for a session or two early this week. It looks like a good entry point/pullback is likely during the early to middle part of this week.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:33 AM
