...............HUI/NEM/XAU Elliot Wave/Cycles
Reliable lead indicator NEM, after hitting a Wave 3 short term cycle high at 43.75 just after yesterday's open (I'm being conservative and assuming that Wave 3 peaked, because it was the second short term upcycle of the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06), put in a Wave C short term cycle low today at 42.48 versus the Wave A cycle low at 42.67 early yesterday, and, put in a Wave B cycle high at 43.57 shortly before yesterday's close. It appears that NEM's downside gap from last Friday at 41.83 is a bullish breakaway gap, as expected.
I need to put some thought into whether HUI/NEM/XAU are still in a big/extended Wave 3 (look at the charts more), either way there should be a third short term upcycle corresponding to Elliot Wave 5 . There are usually three good short term upcycles in a monthly upcycle for HUI/NEM/XAU from my experience, and, often a fourth short term upcycle occurs as the monthly upcycle rolls over/flattens out.
Looking at the XAU, it lagged NEM and hit a Wave 3 short term cycle high late yesterday, then did a Wave A down early today, and, is doing a Wave B up right down. It looks like the XAU is going to try (probably tomorrow) and probably fail to fill it's potential breakaway gap from last Friday at 125.39, since the Wave A cycle low was at 126.74 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
My thinking is that reliable lead indicator NEM didn't fill it's downside gap from last Friday at 41.83, and, it doesn't look like the XAU will either, which means that bullish breakaway gaps probably occurred last Friday as previously thought, so, there's a good chance that HUI/NEM/XAU are still in a large Wave 3 short term upcycle, but, for now I'm being conservative and assuming that Wave 3 has peaked and will reassess the situation near the next short term cycle high.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
I need to put some thought into whether HUI/NEM/XAU are still in a big/extended Wave 3 (look at the charts more), either way there should be a third short term upcycle corresponding to Elliot Wave 5 . There are usually three good short term upcycles in a monthly upcycle for HUI/NEM/XAU from my experience, and, often a fourth short term upcycle occurs as the monthly upcycle rolls over/flattens out.
Looking at the XAU, it lagged NEM and hit a Wave 3 short term cycle high late yesterday, then did a Wave A down early today, and, is doing a Wave B up right down. It looks like the XAU is going to try (probably tomorrow) and probably fail to fill it's potential breakaway gap from last Friday at 125.39, since the Wave A cycle low was at 126.74 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
My thinking is that reliable lead indicator NEM didn't fill it's downside gap from last Friday at 41.83, and, it doesn't look like the XAU will either, which means that bullish breakaway gaps probably occurred last Friday as previously thought, so, there's a good chance that HUI/NEM/XAU are still in a large Wave 3 short term upcycle, but, for now I'm being conservative and assuming that Wave 3 has peaked and will reassess the situation near the next short term cycle high.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (probably ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:42 AM
