The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.89% Versus The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.89% versus the XAU today, which, combined with an extremely overbought short term condition (Williams %R very near zero for HUI/XAU and at an overbought -10.74 for NEM) and the fact that HUI/XAU are relatively close to the top of their monthly upcycle channels, indicates that this strength is probably the big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle (since 10-10-06 for HUI/NEM and since 10-12-06 for the XAU, but, NEM appears to be in Wave 5, Wave 4 probably bottomed near the bottom of it's monthly upcycle channel yesterday) peaking, rather than the start of the Wave 5 short term upcycle (began late yesterday if it began, as reliable lead indicator NEM's probably did). This makes sense since last Friday's gaps for NEM/XAU were good candidates for breakaway gaps (large gaps were created at the open) and have turned out to be breakaway gaps. I'm probably going to do a 1 month chart for HUI or the XAU with the likely Elliot Wave count either today or tomorow.

The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI NEM XAU