The XAU Experienced A Very Sharp Rise In Complacency Yesterday
The XAU experienced a very sharp (3-6%) 5.01% rise in complacency yesterday, because XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.93% to 38.245 yesterday from 39.40 on Thursday despite a -2.08% decline in the XAU (the XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.01% = -2.93% + -2.08% which is a +5.01% rise in complacency), which portends some weakness on Monday (potentially a sharp decline). A Wave 4 short term cycle low (for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06) is likely on Monday for HUI/NEM/XAU.
As previously discussed NEM is likely to fill it's downside gaps at 42.21 and 41.83, and, the XAU is likely to fill it's downside gap at 126.88 (127.01?), but, it's downside gap at 125.39 from 10-13-06 probably won't get filled, because it's a likely breakaway gap and because 125.39 is below the bottom of the monthly upcycle channel, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI/XAU began the Wave 4 short term downcycle yesterday (shortly after the open), for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. Reliable lead indicator NEM began the Wave 4 short term downcycle last Monday at 43.75, then did a Wave A down to 42.09 on Wednesday, followed by a Wave B up to 43.65 yesterday, and, should complete Wave C down on Monday, probably filling it's downside gaps at 42.21 and 41.83.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
As previously discussed NEM is likely to fill it's downside gaps at 42.21 and 41.83, and, the XAU is likely to fill it's downside gap at 126.88 (127.01?), but, it's downside gap at 125.39 from 10-13-06 probably won't get filled, because it's a likely breakaway gap and because 125.39 is below the bottom of the monthly upcycle channel, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI/XAU began the Wave 4 short term downcycle yesterday (shortly after the open), for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. Reliable lead indicator NEM began the Wave 4 short term downcycle last Monday at 43.75, then did a Wave A down to 42.09 on Wednesday, followed by a Wave B up to 43.65 yesterday, and, should complete Wave C down on Monday, probably filling it's downside gaps at 42.21 and 41.83.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:07 AM
