Trade the Cycles

Monday, October 23, 2006

NEM's Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle (For The Monthly Upcycle Since 10-4-06) Probably Began Last Wednesday At 42.09

Reliable lead indicator NEM's Wave 5 short term upcycle (for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06) probably began last Wednesday at 42.09. HUI/XAU's Wave 5 short term upcycle probably started shortly after today's open, but, waiting for HUI/XAU to put in a higher cycle low today or tomorrow probably makes sense. HUI/XAU might, but probably won't (based on the very bullish NEM Lead Indicator right now at +1.50% versus the XAU), do an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern and take out today's early cycle lows. HUI/XAU did do Elliot Wave ABC down up down patterns from early Friday's Wave 3 short term cycle highs to today's early likely Wave 4 cycle lows, so, HUI/XAU are probably in the Wave 5 short term upcycle now.

The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/