.......The XAU Filled It's Downside Gap At 126.88
The XAU filled it's downside gap at 126.88 from last Thursday, but, NEM has failed so far to fill it's downside gaps at 42.21 and at 41.83, with a session cycle low so far at 42.36. The XAU also filled today's upside gap created at the open at 128.79. Right now it makes sense to wait until reliable lead indicator NEM either fills it's downside gaps or clearly puts in a higher cycle low than the session cycle low so far at 42.36, then of course you'll need to gauge the cycles of whatever gold/silver stocks you're trading, using cycle channels/trendlines, Elliot Wave, gaps, technical indicators, volume, etc.
The XAU's downside gap at 125.39 from 10-13-06 probably won't get filled, because it's a likely breakaway gap and because 125.39 is below the bottom of the monthly upcycle channel, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI/XAU began the Wave 4 short term downcycle on Friday (shortly after the open), for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. Reliable lead indicator NEM began the Wave 4 short term downcycle last Monday at 43.75, then did a Wave A down to 42.09 on Wednesday, followed by a Wave B up to 43.65 on Friday, and, should complete Wave C down on Monday, probably filling it's downside gaps at 42.21 and 41.83.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The XAU's downside gap at 125.39 from 10-13-06 probably won't get filled, because it's a likely breakaway gap and because 125.39 is below the bottom of the monthly upcycle channel, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI/XAU began the Wave 4 short term downcycle on Friday (shortly after the open), for the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. Reliable lead indicator NEM began the Wave 4 short term downcycle last Monday at 43.75, then did a Wave A down to 42.09 on Wednesday, followed by a Wave B up to 43.65 on Friday, and, should complete Wave C down on Monday, probably filling it's downside gaps at 42.21 and 41.83.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:18 AM
