....................Monthly Upcycle Analysis

Looking at HUI's monthly upcycle (since 10-4-06) peaks/cycle highs, they're rolling over/flattening out (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, today's candle isn't shown), which strongly suggests that trading long after the Wave 5 short term upcycle peaks (might have today) is very risky. Also, the collapse of XAU Implied Volatility from 39.400 last Thursday to 35.815 yesterday, a -9.10% decline versus the XAU's rise of +3.17% in the same timeframe, is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends substantial weakness in the near future, and, indicates that there's a good chance that the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU is peaking right now.

The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, but, it ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4, so, NEM is in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI NEM XAU