Revised Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Elliot Wave Count
The Wave 5 short term upcycle for HUI/XAU began on Monday shortly after the open, and, began last Wednesday at 42.09 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave 1 up of Wave 5 occurred early on Monday for HUI/XAU, Wave 2 down followed by Wave 3 up also occurred on Monday, then, Wave 4 down occurred yesterday and Wave 5 is occurring now/since early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. So, the Wave 5 short term upcycle and the monthly upcycle (since 10-4-06) for HUI/NEM/XAU will probably peak today or tomorrow, but, there could be another short term upcycle as the monthly upcycle rolls over/flattens out/peaks.
What made the count tricky was that the Wave 4 cycle low yesterday occurred at the same level as Wave 2, which is unusual, so, I assumed that the likely Wave 2 cycle low was part of Wave 1, but it was probably Wave 2 down of the Wave 5 short term upcycle for HUI/XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.41% versus the XAU yesterday.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
What made the count tricky was that the Wave 4 cycle low yesterday occurred at the same level as Wave 2, which is unusual, so, I assumed that the likely Wave 2 cycle low was part of Wave 1, but it was probably Wave 2 down of the Wave 5 short term upcycle for HUI/XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.41% versus the XAU yesterday.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06 (ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4). NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:58 AM
