.......The Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Is Peaking
The Wave 5 short term upcycle since early Monday for HUI/XAU is peaking (NEM's is peaking also), and, may have peaked today or will probably peak tomorrow if it didn't peak today. This of course means that the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU may be peaking, but, another short term upcycle might occur in which the monthly upcycle peaks in rollover/flattening out mode. The collapsing XAU Implied Volatility recently suggests that a rollover short term upcycle is unlikely, and, even if it occurs, would be too risky to trade long.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish late in the session today after being bullish earlier in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. This points to weakness early tomorrow. For the session the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.61% versus the XAU today.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, but, it ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4, so, NEM is in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish late in the session today after being bullish earlier in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. This points to weakness early tomorrow. For the session the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.61% versus the XAU today.
The XAU and HUI have been in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (but began the bullish 3-6 month Wave B up on 10-4-06) and reliable lead indicator NEM was (until 10-4-06) in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, but, it ended at 39.84 on Wednesday 10-4, so, NEM is in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06. NEM's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is currently at 40ish (see third chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:16 PM
