NEM Put In A Monthly Upcycle Second/Elliot Wave 3 Short Term Cycle High Early On 11-22
The XAU probably did so late on 11-22 and HUI probably did today. NEM's short term cycle is probably leading as usual. NEM underperformed the XAU by a wide margin of -0.53% today and underperformed for the week by -1.52%. So, today was probably NEM and the XAU's Elliot Wave 4 short term downcycle beginning relatively flat and probably was HUI's Elliot Wave 3 short term upcycle rolling over/flattening out and probably peaking today.
The likely scenario still is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU fill the downside gaps they created today and the downside gaps at 115.10 and 245.01 from 11-21's open for the XAU and HUI. HUI put in a slightly higher high today than it's previous high on 11-22 at 255.03, so HUI's short term downcycle will probably just be starting today.
The likely scenario still is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU fill the downside gaps they created today and the downside gaps at 115.10 and 245.01 from 11-21's open for the XAU and HUI. HUI put in a slightly higher high today than it's previous high on 11-22 at 255.03, so HUI's short term downcycle will probably just be starting today.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
6 Comments:
Joe,
I remember you said some time ago, after this long-intermediate uptrend was confirmed, that the long-intermediate cycle is getting longer. It seems to me that the weekly and monthly cycles are as well, to the point where they aren't fitting their "names" of weekly and monthly. If this is so, do you see a significance to it?
By
Jeff, at 3:57 PM
Further to that - specifically, if this monthly and weekly were the same lengths as some of the previous ones, I think we would be in EW 5 up topping, instead of an EW 3 top/beginning of 4 down.
It is this concern in identifying the 3/4/5 area this time around that led me to sell a chunk of my options early (Monday). Normally, I would aim to sell 1/4 to 1/3 at the top of a short cycle, but this time I dumped 1/2, which is kind of in-between what I would have done at the end of a weekly cycle, and what I would have done at the end of an EW 5.
There was a potential 4 down for a day, at the "right" time in the POG, but not really confirmed in the shares.
By
Jeff, at 6:22 PM
Jeff, the monthly cycles are more like 6-8 weeks lately from cycle low to cycle low. It's just easier than saying minor intermediate term cycle.
In HUI, NEM, and the XAU's monthly upcycles I see two short term upcycles, so Wave 5 hasn't occurred yet. Monday's COT data may provide insight into the near term outlook that may make me doubt the current likely scenario where HUI fills 245.01 and the XAU fills 115.10, the downside gaps from 11-21, then it's back to the races in EW 5 up.
Remember that NEM has major resistance a bit below 50, if NEM breaks above that look out!
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:36 PM
I understand that the monthly cycles are longer than a month, but if we are on the early side of a 4 down, this is even on the long side of the 8 week range by the time we finish a 5 up, in December gold, anyway. That's why I'm wondering about the length.
Your highs and lows probably look a little different from mine, though, because I think primarily in POG, not the shares. They did not move together well at the end of October - it's hard to tell which was leading the other then.
Thanks again for the responses you've given; I appreciate them. You're most likely right about learning more on Monday. I would think that the Commercials would have gone shorter into this strength, but these are strange times.
By
Jeff, at 9:39 PM
Jeff,
Keep in mind that reliable lead indicator NEM bottomed about two weeks after HUI and the XAU (early November vs 10-20) due to the PDG bid by ABX, so NEM is about 3 weeks or less (since 11-24 wasn't a trading day and 11-25 was a half day) into it's monthly upcycle which, keeping in mind that the cycles have been getting longer, doesn't look unusual at all.
We need to remember that HUI and the XAU's monthly upcycle looks weird because of NEM's downside blip due to the PDG bid by ABX. NEM is the key now as it usually is and I don't see any weirdness with NEM.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:31 PM
One of my previous posts provides another reason why a monthly upcycle probably remains in effect:
Besides Elliot Wave, which suggests that there should be a higher short term cycle high in this monthly upcycle corresponding to Wave 5 after the one that will occur (or has occurred) in this short term upcycle that corresponds to Wave 3, is the fact that NEM hasn't exceeded it's prior monthly cycle high that occurred on 9-30-05 above 48. NEM should put in a monthly cycle high in this monthly upcycle well above the previous one.
So, NEM should put in a monthly cycle high probably in the low 50s, which makes things very interesting because NEM has major upside resistance in the 50 area, a bit below 50 connecting the cycle highs since the prior long term cycle high at 50.28 on 12-2-03. NEM may break through that resistance area in this monthly upcycle which is obviously something to watch.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:14 AM
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