...................Short Term Upcycle Is Peaking
Look at the 5 day HUI chart ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= ) and one can see that the rate of ascent of the short term upcycle is decreasing. It appears that monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 3 short term cycle highs will probably occur today for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, and, the next and possibly final short term upcycle in Wave 5 may break through major resistance a bit below 50 for NEM.
The indicators portend weakness/a downtrend for much of today's session, but the short term upcycle is the most important consideration today, as long as it remains in effect. It's probably peaking today. The NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish yesterday at -0.67% versus the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility revealed a very sharp (3-6%) rise in complacency yesterday, plunging to 28.50 from 30.42 on 11-18 versus a +2.55% rise in the XAU yesterday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio revealed an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear today which portends weakness, rising to 0.64752 today from 0.55947 yesterday. As I write this the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish by about +0.25%.
This has been one of the strongest short term upcycles I've ever seen. Last week NEM rose about 9% in a lttle over one session which is amazing, but much of the buying was short covering as evidenced by an 11.14 million share session.
HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the sharply risng phase of the long term upcycle (began 5-10-04) since 5-16-05's major intermediate term cycle low. Please check out my home page
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ for more info and the "Trade the Cycles" web page can be found there or at the right hand side of this Blog. Ciao
The indicators portend weakness/a downtrend for much of today's session, but the short term upcycle is the most important consideration today, as long as it remains in effect. It's probably peaking today. The NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish yesterday at -0.67% versus the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility revealed a very sharp (3-6%) rise in complacency yesterday, plunging to 28.50 from 30.42 on 11-18 versus a +2.55% rise in the XAU yesterday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio revealed an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear today which portends weakness, rising to 0.64752 today from 0.55947 yesterday. As I write this the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish by about +0.25%.
This has been one of the strongest short term upcycles I've ever seen. Last week NEM rose about 9% in a lttle over one session which is amazing, but much of the buying was short covering as evidenced by an 11.14 million share session.
HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the sharply risng phase of the long term upcycle (began 5-10-04) since 5-16-05's major intermediate term cycle low. Please check out my home page
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ for more info and the "Trade the Cycles" web page can be found there or at the right hand side of this Blog. Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:55 AM
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