Trade the Cycles

Monday, November 21, 2005

Monthly Upcycle Elliot Wave 3 Still Peaking For HUI and the XAU

The indicators correctly portended early weakness today but then HUI, NEM, and the XAU shot up again in impressive fashion. The Elliot Wave 3 second short term upcycle of the monthly upcycle is probably peaking. Williams %R is extremely overbought at 0 for HUI/XAU and is near 0 for NEM. NEM's session high at 47.44 occurred very early in the session while HUI and the XAU peaked at session's end. If short term cycle highs occurred today then the fact that NEM peaked about 6 hours before HUI and the XAU indicates that NEM is leading to the downside.

NEM underperformed the XAU by a wide margin of -0.67% today, which on top of the -o.44% on Friday 11-18 suggests that weakness should soon set in and that today's cycle highs may be short term cycle highs.

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