.......................Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Lives

It looks like HUI, NEM, and the XAU are putting in the second short term cycle high of the monthly upcycle (began on 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and in early November for NEM) today, which are the Elliot Wave 3 short term cycle highs. The dramatic spike move last week was so strong that this early strength is probably the short term upcycle rolling over. William's %R very near 0 right now reveals an extremely overbought condition short term, which is another sign that the short term cycle is probably peaking as I write this. After the probably brief strength early today HUI, NEM, and the XAU should fill the downside gaps created at today's open and HUI is still likely to fill it's downside gap at 240.73 from 11-17 in the next few days, though probably a bit less likely than I thought yesterday.

All three indicators and the most recent gold/silver COT data point to weakness/a downtrend being the tone for most of today's session. So, this strength early today is probably an opportunity for short term cycle traders to exit. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell over 5% today to 0.55947 from 0.58993 on 11-18 which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends weakness/a downtrend for most of today's session. XAU Implied Volatility revealed a 5.82% rise in complacency on 11-18 that portends weakness/a downtrend for most of today's session. The NEM Lead Indicator was bearish on 11-18 at -0.44% which also points to weakness being the tone for most of today's session. The bottom line is that my most recent update's scenario is still likely (HUI filling it's downside gap at 240.73). There should be weakness for the next few days until a monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 4 short term cycle low occurs. Ciao