Trade the Cycles

Saturday, November 19, 2005

HUI's downside gap at 240.73 from 11-17 has yet to be filled

HUI's downside gap at 240.73 from 11-17 has yet to be filled. A likely scenario early this week is that HUI fills it's downside gap at 240.73, then puts in an Elliot Wave 4 short term cycle low (along with NEM and the XAU at about the same time) shortly thereafter, and then it's back to the races in the Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle that could culminate in a monthly cycle high or at least will probably be the last tradable short term upcycle of this monthly upcycle. If there is a higher cycle high after the Elliot Wave 5 short term cycle high it will probably occur as the monthly upcycle rolls over after the parabolic shaped monthly upcycle trendline has broken down. Once HUI fills it's downside gap a reliable sign for short term cycle traders to look to go long is to wait for NEM to outperform the XAU by a wide margin (probably leading to the upside). The dramatic spike move last week that typically is followed by a sharp correction, the fact that NEM underperformed the XAU by a significant margin of -0.44% on Friday 11-18, Williams %R for HUI, NEM, , and the XAU is in overbought territory above -20, and that XAU Implied Volatility revealed a very sharp 5.82% rise in complacency on 11-18, all point to weakness on Monday 11-21.

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