Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Reliable Lead Indicator Newmont Mining Explodes!

NEM is going bananas today and the only news I've seen so far is shown below. Not sure why it's up over 4% solely on that news, unless it's a clear sign that they won't go after PDG. NEM is outperforming the XAU by well over 1% as I wrote this, so the NEM Lead Indicator is obviously very bullish early today. NEM outperformed the XAU by +0.46% yesterday, so strength/an uptrend today for a significant part of the session was likely.

"Newmont Mining Corp. of Canada Ltd. (NMC.T) has agreed to acquire, by private placement, 18.5 million stock-warrant units of Miramar Mining Corp. (MNG) at C$2.35 each, for a total investment of C$43.5 million. In a news release, Miramar said each unit consists of one share and one warrant, with each warrant exercisable for one additional share at C$2.75 for 48 months. Miramar said the share portion of the units represents about 9.9% of its outstanding shares after the sale of the units. If the warrants are exercised, Newmont will hold about an 18% stake in Miramar. The private placement is expected to close on or about Nov. 18, subject to formal documentation and all necessary regulatory and stock exchange approvals. The securities won't be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. Miramar said Newmont will acquire the units for investment purposes only."

The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.77426 today from 0.78301 yesterday which portends weakness/a downtrend for a significant part of today's session. Given the early dramatic spike move a downtrend for much of today's session would be likely even if all the indicators portended strength. XAU Implied Volatility also portends weakness/a downtrend for a significant part of today's session because it rose from 33.735 on 11-14 to 34.075 yesterday, but it rose significantly less in % terms than the XAU fell yesterday (-1.90%), so a significant rise in complacency occurred yesterday. Ciao

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