Thoughts and Indications
HUI, NEM, and the XAU gapped up at the open and HUI/XAU already filled their downside gaps. Cyclewise, which is the primary consideration, it appears that the second short term cycle high of the monthly upcycle since 10-20-05 (HUI/XAU) will occur this week, which will be the Elliot Wave 3 short term cycle high, so there should be another higher short term cycle high corresponding to Wave 5 after this one.
Indications: NEM Lead Indicator was modestly bearish yesterday at -0.24% underperformance vs the XAU. Today however, NEM appears to be leading to the upside as it typically does, outperforming the XAU by a healthy +0.50%, so the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish today.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.78301 today from 0.79940 which portends weakness/ a downtrend for some of today's session, and the weakness is occurring early, so the potentially substantial strength indicated by XAU Implied Volatility and the fact that NEM is outperforming the XAU today point to strength for much of the session. XAU Implied Volatility rose nearly 5% yesterday to 33.735 from 32.215 on 11-11 vs a -1.20% decline in the XAU yesterday, which is a sharp rise in fear that portends strength for some of today's session.
The COT data released yesterday is bullish, portending strength accompanied by some weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders continued to aggressively cover their shorts last week, but did liquidate a significant % of their long position, which points to some weakness this week.
So, things are going as expected, meaning that last weekend's update assessment ( http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down past the major averages work) remains unchanged. You should read it and maybe read it twice. The charts are very important because cycle channels/trendlines are the primary market timing consideration. Ciao
Indications: NEM Lead Indicator was modestly bearish yesterday at -0.24% underperformance vs the XAU. Today however, NEM appears to be leading to the upside as it typically does, outperforming the XAU by a healthy +0.50%, so the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish today.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.78301 today from 0.79940 which portends weakness/ a downtrend for some of today's session, and the weakness is occurring early, so the potentially substantial strength indicated by XAU Implied Volatility and the fact that NEM is outperforming the XAU today point to strength for much of the session. XAU Implied Volatility rose nearly 5% yesterday to 33.735 from 32.215 on 11-11 vs a -1.20% decline in the XAU yesterday, which is a sharp rise in fear that portends strength for some of today's session.
The COT data released yesterday is bullish, portending strength accompanied by some weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders continued to aggressively cover their shorts last week, but did liquidate a significant % of their long position, which points to some weakness this week.
So, things are going as expected, meaning that last weekend's update assessment ( http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down past the major averages work) remains unchanged. You should read it and maybe read it twice. The charts are very important because cycle channels/trendlines are the primary market timing consideration. Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:49 AM
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