11-14 Thoughts and Indications

HUI, NEM, and the XAU gapped down at the open and are likely to fill those upside gaps today, which means they should get into positive territory today simply due to gap filling. More good news is that the XAU Put/Call Ratio (Nov exp) rose very sharply (over 3%) today to 0.79940 from 0.7756 on Friday 11-11 which portends strength and potentially a big up day today. As discussed in the latest weekly update ( http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down past the major averages work), XAU Implied Volatility also portends strength today while the NEM Lead Indicator points to some weakness.

As I write this the NEM Lead Indicator is slightly bearish but that's expected given that a short term cycle high appears likely in the next day or so. Given that both the XAU Put/Call Ratio and XAU Implied Volatility portend strength today it appears that strength/an uptrend will be the tone for much of the session.

HUI and the XAU have broken their downtrend lines since the 9-30-05 monthly cycle highs (see 3 month XAU chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= ) and are in wave 3 of the monthly upcycle that began on 10-20-05, so there should be another higher cycle high than the one that occurs in this short term upcycle. Ciao.