11-9 Thoughts
Things are going as expected, meaning that last weekend's update assessment ( http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down past the major averages work) remains unchanged.
NEM underperformed the XAU yesterday by a wide margin of -0.50% but is outperforming today as I write this by about +0.25%, so for the week the NEM Lead Indicator is about +0.50% after being +1.82% from Tuesday thru Friday last week, so the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish as it should be at this point in the monthly cycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (Nov expiration) rose to 0.80729 today from 0.80128 yesterday, which correctly indicated strength/an uptrend today, at least early on. XAU Implied Volatility however fell modestly to 33.08 at yesterday's close from 33.205 at 11-7's close versus a slight -0.22% decline in the XAU yesterday, so XAU Implied Volatility reveals a modest rise in complacency yesterday that portends weakness/a downtrend for some of today's session, and, HUI, NEM, and the XAU have downside gaps created at today's open that may get filled.
A big thing to watch now as I said yesterday is that HUI and the XAU appear to be on the verge of breaking above their downtrend lines since the 9-30-05 monthly cycle highs. So, they could be about to make a big move in the next week or so, which is exactly what should happen given the monthly cycle buy signals that occurred on 10-24-05 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, when they had more than 2% follow through after breaking their parabolic shaped monthly downcycle trendlines. See monthly cycle buy signals at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html
NEM underperformed the XAU yesterday by a wide margin of -0.50% but is outperforming today as I write this by about +0.25%, so for the week the NEM Lead Indicator is about +0.50% after being +1.82% from Tuesday thru Friday last week, so the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish as it should be at this point in the monthly cycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (Nov expiration) rose to 0.80729 today from 0.80128 yesterday, which correctly indicated strength/an uptrend today, at least early on. XAU Implied Volatility however fell modestly to 33.08 at yesterday's close from 33.205 at 11-7's close versus a slight -0.22% decline in the XAU yesterday, so XAU Implied Volatility reveals a modest rise in complacency yesterday that portends weakness/a downtrend for some of today's session, and, HUI, NEM, and the XAU have downside gaps created at today's open that may get filled.
A big thing to watch now as I said yesterday is that HUI and the XAU appear to be on the verge of breaking above their downtrend lines since the 9-30-05 monthly cycle highs. So, they could be about to make a big move in the next week or so, which is exactly what should happen given the monthly cycle buy signals that occurred on 10-24-05 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, when they had more than 2% follow through after breaking their parabolic shaped monthly downcycle trendlines. See monthly cycle buy signals at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:15 AM
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