Monthly Upcycle Elliot Wave 3 May Be Over
The final spike of the monthly upcycle's (since 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and early November for NEM) second short term upcycle appears to be occurring early today. NEM has risen an amazing 9% in a little over one session, with short covering and option expiration (tomorrow) almost certainly playing a major part (explains yesterday's 11+ million shares).
The NEM Lead Indicator was very bullish yesterday at +1.03% and is neutral as I write this. Both the XAU Put/Call Ratio, which rose sharply to 0.80338 today from 0.77426 yesterday, and XAU Implied Volatility, at 32.685 yesterday versus 34.075 the day before versus a +5.96% rise in the XAU yesterday, fell significantly less in % terms than the XAU rose which was a significant rise in fear yesterday, portend strength.
It appears however that the strength today will be brief, which isn't surprising given the huge spike move that began yesterday. NEM and the XAU have downside gaps created at today's open at 46.05 and 114.29 that will probably get filled in the next day or two. Buckle up!
The NEM Lead Indicator was very bullish yesterday at +1.03% and is neutral as I write this. Both the XAU Put/Call Ratio, which rose sharply to 0.80338 today from 0.77426 yesterday, and XAU Implied Volatility, at 32.685 yesterday versus 34.075 the day before versus a +5.96% rise in the XAU yesterday, fell significantly less in % terms than the XAU rose which was a significant rise in fear yesterday, portend strength.
It appears however that the strength today will be brief, which isn't surprising given the huge spike move that began yesterday. NEM and the XAU have downside gaps created at today's open at 46.05 and 114.29 that will probably get filled in the next day or two. Buckle up!
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:15 AM
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