Headfake, Short Term Downcycle Probably Starting Out Flat

I was surprised to see this much strength today, but it appears that it's the short term downcycle/Elliot Wave 4 of the monthly upcycle beginning relatively flat. Why is it unlikely that the Wave 5 short term upcycle has begun? The fact that NEM is underperforming the XAU by a wide margin right now (over -0.50%) is one sign that this is a headfake move. Also, HUI, NEM, and the XAU are filling or trying to fill upside gaps from Wednesday. The likely scenario is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU fill the downside gaps they created today and the downside gaps at 115.10 and 245.01 from 11-21's open for the XAU and HUI. HUI put in a slightly higher high today than it's previous high on 11-22 at 255.03, so HUI's short term downcycle will just be starting today assuming it is a short term downcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.51% vs the XAU on Wednesday, and XAU Implied Volatility also portends strength today, rising +4.85% to 29.505 on 11-23 from 28.14 on 11-22 vs a -2.35% decline in the XAU on 11-23, which is a sharp rise in fear that portends some strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio ratio revealed an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear today, rising to 0.65499 today from 0.58075 on 11-23, that portends weakness/a downtrend for some of today's session, which supports my belief that Elliot Wave 4 short term cycle lows haven't occurred yet. The fact that NEM is underperforming the XAU by a wide margin (over -0.50%) right now is a clear sign that this is probably just a headfake due to upside gap filling action and actually HUI made a slightly higher cycle high today than it's high on 11-22, so HUI's short term downcycle will just be starting today if it is a short term downcycle. Ciao