Monthly Upcycle Elliot Wave 3 Short Term Cycle Highs May Have Occurred Today
NEM appears to have put in a short term cycle high early today at 47.74 while HUI and the XAU, lagging NEM as they typically do, were still rising at session's end and put in higher cycle highs than their early session cycle highs. HUI and the XAU may have peaked today or will probably do so tomorrow. NEM underperformed the XAU by a very bearish -0.83% today on top of a bearish -0.67% yesterday and -0.44% on 11-18, so the NEM Lead Indicator strongly suggests that weakness is imminent.
This second upcycle of the monthly upcycle since 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and since early November for NEM, corresponding to Elliot Wave 3, is peaking now, and, there should be one more tradable short term upcycle in this monthly upcycle, which will be the Ellliot Wave 5 short term upcycle. If a higher short term cycle high occurs after Elliot Wave 5 it will probably do so as the monthly upcycle rolls over and the parabolic shaped monthly upcycle trendline has broken down.
This second upcycle of the monthly upcycle since 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and since early November for NEM, corresponding to Elliot Wave 3, is peaking now, and, there should be one more tradable short term upcycle in this monthly upcycle, which will be the Ellliot Wave 5 short term upcycle. If a higher short term cycle high occurs after Elliot Wave 5 it will probably do so as the monthly upcycle rolls over and the parabolic shaped monthly upcycle trendline has broken down.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:06 PM
7 Comments:
I'm not sure about NEM as a lead indicator for this cycle. Company specific news may predominate here, such as this:
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the world's number-one mining company, has signed a secrecy agreement with takeover target Placer Dome Inc. (PDX) that will allow it to look over Placer's assets, a person familiar with the matter said Tuesday.
"Newmont is leading the charge of companies that have signed a confidentiality agreement with Placer to access the Placer data room and information," the person said.
By
Jeff, at 7:14 PM
Jeff,
NEM did lead to the upside in this short term upcycle, outperforming the XAU during last Wednesday 11-16's monster day by a very wide margin of +1.03% (+6.99% vs +5.96% for the XAU) and by +0.35% on 11-17, and, the fact that NEM has turned very bearish the past three sessions points to imminent weakness. Buckle up!
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:55 PM
In the previous comment I should have said the fact that the NEM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish the past three sessions points to imminent weakness. I left out "Lead Indicator."
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:01 PM
I'm buckled. Sold half my options Monday. I'm getting a target price on EW 5 up as about 505-515, in order to slightly exceed the height of the consolidation triangle prior to this. That's why, when I thought we had turned to a 4 down and started going up again, I didn't believe we were at the top - it makes more sense if we are NOW in the 4 down (or, of course, if my upside targets are wrong).
BTW, thanks for putting all this info out here - really helps me think.
By
Jeff, at 7:05 AM
You're welcome Jeff. My work, besides providing highly useful info, helps me to trade. Ciao.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:10 AM
A clarification from me, too. I meant from here on out, not up to this point, I would get more careful about using NEM as an indicator. Especially now that McEwen (ex-GG CEO) suggested that NEM let ABX buy PDG and then go after the whole thing, followed by a rejection of ABX's bid. Things could get really weird now, since I don't think PDG could in good faith to its shareholders reject the bid without other bids (NEM possibly) being nearly sure things.
I do understand that it's worked pretty well so far. Just a concern about the possibility of losing a good indicator for a while.
By
Jeff, at 7:14 AM
Jeff, I watch the NEM Lead Indicator very closely, so I'll know if it stops working well. Ciao.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:26 AM
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