SPX's Upcycle Since 12-18-09 Is Peaking/Peaked
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since Friday 12-18-09 is peaking/peaked (rolled over dramatically since early yesterday), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. The 1119.13 cycle high from 12-4-09 was taken out today (1120.27 cycle high).
Early tomorrow it looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably be firm. SPX came very close to filling today's downside gap/magnet at 1114.05, which means that it's probably only a modestly bullish breakaway gap, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Gap/magnets to keep in mind tomorrow are today's downside gap at 1114.05 from the open, yesterday 12-21-09's downside gap at 1102.47 from the open, and, any gap that might be created at tomorrow's open. Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart looks bullish, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically yesterday soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. Yesterday's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 2.849 billion shares today 12-22-09 (3.360 billion shares yesterday 12-21-09) vs the 60 day EMA at 4.036 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's strength in a meaningful way.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is very bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -1.00% to -1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at modestly bearish today, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially today 12-22-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Wednesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -4.64% vs SPX up +0.36% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Wednesday 12-23-09, because, it's a very sharp +4.28% rise in complacency/-4.28% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness is likely early on Wednesday.
Market breadth was/closed at modestly bullish/mixed (BB was mixed) today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a modestly bullish indication for early Wednesday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month+, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action; the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking. SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks, it has rolled over dramatically.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is a bullish indication, once the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since 12-16-09 bottoms, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOt.
The precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at http://bit.ly/6Kl4GQ.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September (or at least began rolling over dramatically), when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Early tomorrow it looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably be firm. SPX came very close to filling today's downside gap/magnet at 1114.05, which means that it's probably only a modestly bullish breakaway gap, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Gap/magnets to keep in mind tomorrow are today's downside gap at 1114.05 from the open, yesterday 12-21-09's downside gap at 1102.47 from the open, and, any gap that might be created at tomorrow's open. Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart looks bullish, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically yesterday soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. Yesterday's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 2.849 billion shares today 12-22-09 (3.360 billion shares yesterday 12-21-09) vs the 60 day EMA at 4.036 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's strength in a meaningful way.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is very bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -1.00% to -1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at modestly bearish today, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially today 12-22-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Wednesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -4.64% vs SPX up +0.36% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Wednesday 12-23-09, because, it's a very sharp +4.28% rise in complacency/-4.28% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness is likely early on Wednesday.
Market breadth was/closed at modestly bullish/mixed (BB was mixed) today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a modestly bullish indication for early Wednesday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month+, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action; the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking. SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks, it has rolled over dramatically.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is a bullish indication, once the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since 12-16-09 bottoms, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOt.
The precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at http://bit.ly/6Kl4GQ.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September (or at least began rolling over dramatically), when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:33 PM
1 Comments:
Follow Me, @tradethecycles, On Twitter, See http://bit.ly/69LiZ5.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:14 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home