SPX's Short Term Upcycle Since 12-9-09 Is Probably Peaking
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since 12-9-09 is probably peaking, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill today 12-14-09's 1106.41 downside gap/magnet (from the open) on Tuesday or Wednesday (also watch 12-10-09's 1095.95 downside gap/magnet (from the open)).
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is, not surprisingly, testing/approaching the 1119.13 12-4-09 cycle high, in Wave 5 up of the upcycle since very early Wednesday 12-9-09, see the five day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:. Based on the nature of cycles, if SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in an important cycle high at 1119.13 on 12-4-09, then, SPX should put in a cycle high close to 1119.13, such that the downcycle's trend begins very flat.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the largest component of the heavily market cap weighted SPX/S & P 500 (3%+), experienced a mini crash today, creating a huge bearish breakaway upside gap at the open, see http://bit.ly/4B2JAq. Obviously, an important development.
Also, see NDX's (NASDAQ 100) bearish five day intraday chart, with it's Short Term Upcycle since 12-9-09 rolling over "very dramatically" today, putting in a very bearish triple top (Friday and today) on the five day intraday chart, and, it still obviously looks like NDX is leading SPX to the downside, see http://bit.ly/6Rq66e.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is in extremely bearish territory (usually is a very short term bullish indication), since WMT's leading to the downside by -2.00% to -3.99%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at extremely bearish today (-2.00% to -3.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bearish -1.76% vs SPX today 12-14-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX weakness early tomorrow/Tuesday (WMT looks like it will decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), with likely early weakness/downside gap filling action (watch 1106.41 downside gap/magnet), because, it's in very bearish territory (-1.00% to -1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) fell sharply today 12-14-09, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from very early Wednesday 12-9-09 to late today 12-14-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it was a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was down -2.04% vs SPX up +0.70% today, which is a bearish indication for early Tuesday 12-15-09, because, it's a +1.34% rise in complacency/-1.34% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap (1106.41) filling action is likely early on Tuesday.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at bullish today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX might have peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Important tomorrow/Tuesday probably will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1106.41 from today 12-14-09's open. A session cycle low is likely VERY SOON after the downside gap/magnet at 1106.41 gets filled, see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When the 1106.41 downside gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication (once the upcycle since very early 12-9-09 peaks), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 2 day nearly 66% volume spike from 12-2 to 12-4 pointed to Friday 12-4-09 being an important cycle high.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill today 12-14-09's 1106.41 downside gap/magnet (from the open) on Tuesday or Wednesday (also watch 12-10-09's 1095.95 downside gap/magnet (from the open)).
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is, not surprisingly, testing/approaching the 1119.13 12-4-09 cycle high, in Wave 5 up of the upcycle since very early Wednesday 12-9-09, see the five day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:. Based on the nature of cycles, if SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in an important cycle high at 1119.13 on 12-4-09, then, SPX should put in a cycle high close to 1119.13, such that the downcycle's trend begins very flat.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the largest component of the heavily market cap weighted SPX/S & P 500 (3%+), experienced a mini crash today, creating a huge bearish breakaway upside gap at the open, see http://bit.ly/4B2JAq. Obviously, an important development.
Also, see NDX's (NASDAQ 100) bearish five day intraday chart, with it's Short Term Upcycle since 12-9-09 rolling over "very dramatically" today, putting in a very bearish triple top (Friday and today) on the five day intraday chart, and, it still obviously looks like NDX is leading SPX to the downside, see http://bit.ly/6Rq66e.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is in extremely bearish territory (usually is a very short term bullish indication), since WMT's leading to the downside by -2.00% to -3.99%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at extremely bearish today (-2.00% to -3.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bearish -1.76% vs SPX today 12-14-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX weakness early tomorrow/Tuesday (WMT looks like it will decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), with likely early weakness/downside gap filling action (watch 1106.41 downside gap/magnet), because, it's in very bearish territory (-1.00% to -1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) fell sharply today 12-14-09, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from very early Wednesday 12-9-09 to late today 12-14-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it was a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was down -2.04% vs SPX up +0.70% today, which is a bearish indication for early Tuesday 12-15-09, because, it's a +1.34% rise in complacency/-1.34% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap (1106.41) filling action is likely early on Tuesday.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at bullish today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX might have peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Important tomorrow/Tuesday probably will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1106.41 from today 12-14-09's open. A session cycle low is likely VERY SOON after the downside gap/magnet at 1106.41 gets filled, see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When the 1106.41 downside gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication (once the upcycle since very early 12-9-09 peaks), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 2 day nearly 66% volume spike from 12-2 to 12-4 pointed to Friday 12-4-09 being an important cycle high.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:37 PM
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