SPX's Cycle High Today was Probably Wave 3 of Upcycle Since Very Early Yesterday
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high today 12-10-09 was probably Wave 3 of the upcycle since very early yesterday, since there's an up down up down pattern, see the five day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill today's 1095.95 downside gap/magnet from the open early tomorrow, then, SPX probably will test/at least approach the 1119.13 12-4-09 cycle high, in Wave 5 up of the upcycle since very early yesterday 12-9-09, see the five day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
The NASDAQ Advance/Decline Ratio closed at 37:59 today, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow, pointing to likely early weakness/downside gap filling/1095.95, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW.
Also, NDX's (NASDAQ 100) bearish intraday chart, with a large bearish spike occurring shortly before session's end, and, it looks bearish anyway, points to early weakness tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/8Ymya9.
Based on the nature of cycles, if SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in an important cycle high at 1119.13 on 12-4-09, then, SPX should put in a cycle high close to 1119.13, such that the downcycle's trend begins very flat.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication (once the upcycle since very early yesterday peaks), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is in bullish territory, since WMT's leading to the upside by more than +0.50%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a bullish +0.57% vs SPX today 12-10-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX strength tomorrow/Friday (WMT looks like it will decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), after likely early weakness/downside gap filling action (watch 1095.95 downside gap), because, it's in modestly bullish territory (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose sharply today 12-10-09 (though the absolute VIX was down -1.50% vs SPX up +0.58%, which jives with early SPX weakness), which is a bullish indication for tomorrow/Friday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from very early yesterday 12-9-09 to very early today 12-10-09, which is an extremely bearish indication (once SPX probably tests 1119.13 cycle high), because, it was a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was down -1.50% vs SPX up +0.58% today, which is a bearish indication for early Friday 12-11-09, because, it's a +0.92% rise in complacency/-0.92% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap (1095.95) filling action is likely early on Friday.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Friday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 2 day nearly 66% volume spike from 12-2 to 12-4 pointed to Friday 12-4-09 being an important cycle high.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill today's 1095.95 downside gap/magnet from the open early tomorrow, then, SPX probably will test/at least approach the 1119.13 12-4-09 cycle high, in Wave 5 up of the upcycle since very early yesterday 12-9-09, see the five day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
The NASDAQ Advance/Decline Ratio closed at 37:59 today, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow, pointing to likely early weakness/downside gap filling/1095.95, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW.
Also, NDX's (NASDAQ 100) bearish intraday chart, with a large bearish spike occurring shortly before session's end, and, it looks bearish anyway, points to early weakness tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/8Ymya9.
Based on the nature of cycles, if SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in an important cycle high at 1119.13 on 12-4-09, then, SPX should put in a cycle high close to 1119.13, such that the downcycle's trend begins very flat.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication (once the upcycle since very early yesterday peaks), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is in bullish territory, since WMT's leading to the upside by more than +0.50%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a bullish +0.57% vs SPX today 12-10-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX strength tomorrow/Friday (WMT looks like it will decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), after likely early weakness/downside gap filling action (watch 1095.95 downside gap), because, it's in modestly bullish territory (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose sharply today 12-10-09 (though the absolute VIX was down -1.50% vs SPX up +0.58%, which jives with early SPX weakness), which is a bullish indication for tomorrow/Friday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from very early yesterday 12-9-09 to very early today 12-10-09, which is an extremely bearish indication (once SPX probably tests 1119.13 cycle high), because, it was a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was down -1.50% vs SPX up +0.58% today, which is a bearish indication for early Friday 12-11-09, because, it's a +0.92% rise in complacency/-0.92% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap (1095.95) filling action is likely early on Friday.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Friday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 2 day nearly 66% volume spike from 12-2 to 12-4 pointed to Friday 12-4-09 being an important cycle high.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:36 PM
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